Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – August 4, 2022: Rates surge

Wednesday saw mortgage rates jump dramatically higher, after about a week of moving lower. The 30-year average surged more than a half a percentage point by the end of the day.

Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages

After dropping more than 40 basis points over the past week, the 30-year average soared 52 points higher on Wednesday. Now at 5.78%, the average is at its highest point in two weeks but is still 60 basis points below mid-June’s 14-year peak of 6.38%.

Rates on 15-year loans also surged Wednesday, though less substantially. Rising three-eighths of a point, the 15-year average is 4.9%. Like 30-year loans, 15-year rates registered their highest level since 2008 about six weeks ago, when they touched 5.41%.

Meanwhile, Jumbo 30-year rates rose just an eighth of a point Wednesday, to average 4.82%. The Jumbo 30-year average has been sitting below the 5% threshold for about two weeks.

After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates have since skyrocketed, with the 30-year average peaking in mid-June by an eye-popping 3.49 percentage points above its August 2021 low of 2.89%.

Meanwhile, mid-June saw the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages shoot 3.21 and 2.38 percentage points higher, respectively, than their summer 2021 valleys.

Refinancing rates moved in a similar upward pattern Wednesday, with the 30-year refi average jumping 56 basis points, the 15-year rising 40 points, and Jumbo 30-year refi rates increasing by 12 points. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently eight to 45 points more expensive than a new purchase loan.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place September 20–21.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.