Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – September 2, 2022: Rates leap
Rates on 30-year mortgages bolted dramatically higher Thursday. The flagship average is now a full third of a point above the 6% threshold, as well as within just a few points of the highest level seen since 2008.
Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages
On June 14, 30-year mortgage rates entered historic territory when the average climbed to 6.38%, the highest level registered in almost 14 years. In the two and half months since, the average has bobbed around between 5.26% and 6.31%.
A big jump Thursday, however, has taken rates back into notable territory. The 30-year average added 30 basis points to reach 6.34%, just four points shy of the mid-June peak.
Rates on 15-year loans also surged Thursday, and in their case, the jump has set a new 14-year high. Climbing 25 basis points, the 15-year average is now at 5.62%, which is more than two-tenths of a percentage point above mid-June’s high-water mark of 5.41%.
Jumbo 30-year rates behaved differently Thursday, marching in place for no change. Holding at 5.27%, the Jumbo 30-year average is at a 10-week high.
Refinancing rates moved a little differently Thursday. Though the 30-year refi average also bolted higher, gaining 23 basis points, the 15-year refi average only added five points. Jumbo 30-year refi rates meanwhile held steady like their new purchase counterparts. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently zero to 40 points more expensive than new purchase loans.
After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022, with the 30-year average peaking in mid-June by an eye-popping 3.49 percentage points above its August 2021 low of 2.89%.
Meanwhile, mid-June saw the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages shoot 3.21 and 2.38 percentage points higher, respectively, than their summer 2021 valleys.
The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.
Calculate monthly payments for different loan scenarios with our Mortgage Calculator.
Lowest Mortgage Rates by State
The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.
What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.
On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.
The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place September 20–21.
The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.
For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.