Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – September 6, 2022: Rates drop back

After bolting Thursday to within just a few points of the highest level seen since 2008, the 30-year mortgage average knocked off much of that gain Friday. But despite declining almost two-tenths of a point, Friday’s average still remains solidly in 6% territory.

Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages

A big jump in rates Thursday took several mortgage averages into notable territory, nearing existing 14-year highs or setting new peaks. But Friday saw the spike blunted, with the 30-year average shedding 18 of the 30 basis points it climbed Thursday. The flagship average is now 6.16%, compared to the 6.38% notched in mid-June, its highest level since 2008.

Rates on 15-year loans also dropped back Friday after leaping the day before. The 15-year average currently sits at 5.43%, compared to a new 14-year high of 5.62% registered on Thursday.

Jumbo 30-year rates, meanwhile, marked time for a second day. Holding at 5.27%, the Jumbo 30-year average is at a 10-week high.

Refinancing rates moved similarly Friday for 30-year and Jumbo 30-year loans. The 30-year refi average gave up 22 basis points, while the Jumbo 30-year average marched in place again. The 15-year refi average, however, moved the opposite direction from its 15-year new purchase counterpart, tacking on an eighth of a percentage point. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently zero to 55 points more expensive than new purchase loans.

After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022, with the 30-year average peaking in mid-June by an eye-popping 3.49 percentage points above its August 2021 low of 2.89%.

Meanwhile, mid-June saw the 15-year and Jumbo 30-year averages shoot 3.21 and 2.38 percentage points higher, respectively, than their summer 2021 valleys.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place September 20–21.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.