Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – September 19, 2022: Rates rise

Mortgage rates jumped on Friday, surpassing the spike posted earlier in the week to set a new 14-year high. The 30-year average is now in the mid 6% range and at its highest level since the fall of 2008.

Today’s National Mortgage Rate Averages

Thirty-year mortgage rates rose eight basis points Friday, while already sitting in elevated territory. Now at 6.48%, the flagship average has hit its most expensive level since 2008.

The 15-year average meanwhile subtracted three basis points Friday, edging down to 5.77%. Its 5.80% level registered Thursday was a 14-year high.

Jumbo 30-year rates spiked an eighth of a percentage Friday, pushing the average to 5.64%. This takes it well above the June peak of 5.53%.

Refinancing rates moved relatively similarly Friday to new purchase rates, with the 30-year refi average gaining nine basis points and the Jumbo 30-year refi average climbing 13 points, while the 15-year refi average dropped nine basis points. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently zero to 25 points more expensive than new purchase loans.

After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022, with the 30-year average peaking in mid-June by almost 3.5 percentage points above its August 2021 low of 2.89%. The current 30-year average is two basis points above June’s high.

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Lowest Mortgage Rates by State

The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders’ varying risk management strategies.

What Causes Mortgage Rates to Rise or Fall?

Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it’s generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.

Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic’s economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.

On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.

The Fed’s rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place September 20–21.

Methodology

The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.

For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.