OPEC+ to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day to shore up prices, defying U.S. pressure

Energy analysts said the actual impact of the group’s supply cuts for November was likely to be limited, with unilateral cuts by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait likely to do the main job.

What’s more, analysts said it is currently difficult for OPEC+ to form a view more than a month or two into the future as the energy market faces the uncertainty of more European sanctions on non-OPEC producer Russia — including on shipping insurance, price caps and reduced petroleum imports.

“In its own words, OPEC’s mission is to ensure an adequate pricing environment for both consumers and producers. Yet the decision to reduce output in the current environment runs counter to this objective,” Stephen Brennock, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates in London, said in a research note.

“Further squeezing already-tight supplies will be a slap in the face for consumers. The selfishly motivated move is aimed purely at benefiting producers,” he added. “In short, OPEC+ is prioritising price above stability at a time of great uncertainty in the oil market.”

Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X ETFs, told CNBC that the group’s decision to impose production cuts could see oil prices rally back to $100 a barrel — assuming no major bouts of Covid globally and the U.S. Federal Reserve not becoming unexpectedly hawkish.

“Due to the decision, volatility will likely return to the market, and despite concerns about the resilience of the global economy, the oil market is tight, all of which should serve as a tailwind for prices in the fourth quarter,” Reddy said.

He added that while a return to $100 oil is possible, “a more likely scenario in the short term is that oil prices hover in the $90 to $100 range as the market digests economic data releases.”