Oil could rise or fall — and these energy stocks are winners either way, portfolio manager says
Whether oil prices rise or fall, energy stocks are still worth investing in, according to Foord Asset Management’s Brian Arcese. Arcese, a portfolio manager at the firm, said he would be quite comfortable increasing the weight of energy stocks in his portfolio. “I think there are a lot of tailwinds for oil prices going forward,” he told CNBC Pro Talks on Thursday. “Then what happens if I’m wrong? That’s why some of these oil majors are, in our minds, a great way to play the space.” “Oil prices are likely to, at a minimum, stay where they are but they could go higher. And if you’re wrong, all of these companies are also very fast generative at oil prices less than half of where they are today. So you would still be earning a dividend with oil at $40,” Arcese added. Crude prices have been volatile this year, with Brent rallying following the Russia-Ukraine war to around $130 per barrel before generally sliding on recession worries. Brent was last trading around $91 per barrel and WTI was around $83 per barrel. Stock picks Arcese says he likes Occidental , a “great company [which] is highly geared to oil prices.” “So if oil prices stay high, they generate a significant amount of cash,” he said. “Management is taking the view that they won’t use the cash to invest in lower returning renewables energy projects, for example, but instead will return all the excess cash to investors — either in buybacks or in special dividends.” Another stock that Foord has invested in is French firm TotalEnergies , which also leverages oil prices but to a far lower extent than Occidental, said Arcese. Energy is the only sector in the S & P 500 to be in the green year-to-date as of Friday, with most others deep in the red. “It’s a very interesting space to invest in when there’s been significant underinvestment and even today with prices where they are most oil majors are not investing in new exploration,” Arcese added. The amount spent on oil and gas has declined, partly because of the industry facing growing pressure to move away from fossil fuels. Total spending in 2021 was a little more than $350 billion – “well below” 2019 levels, according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2021 .
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