Situation difficult along the entire frontline, Kyiv says; Moscow weighs up support for Ukraine in midterms

While the U.S. midterm election results roll in, the vote is being closely watched in Ukraine and Russia with both gauging how the election could impact the war and global geopolitics.

Moscow is seen to favor a win for the Republicans in the midterms in the hope that a big power shift could bring about a change in the U.S.? foreign policy toward Ukraine — and could deepen rumblings of discontent among Republicans over the massive financial support the U.S. is giving Kyiv to fight Russia.

There are some signs that bipartisan support for such immense and ongoing aid could be waning with prominent Republicans starting to question how long the U.S.? largesse can continue, particularly against a backdrop of inflation, potential recession and rising living costs.

Russia could well hope that a shift in power after the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine, but analysts say Moscow could be disappointed unless former leader Donald Trump is able to return to power. Trump signaled he could announce next week a plan to run for the presidency again in 2024.

Read more here: Russia’s hopes for a Republican landslide to hurt Ukraine are vanishing fast

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s armed forces said they believe that units of attack drone operators are being formed in Belarus as part of a wider border troop force.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said in its operational update on Wednesday that units of drone operators were being formed within Belarus’ border guards.

“The Republic of Belarus continues to support the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine, providing it with infrastructure, territory and airspace,” the update noted, adding that the formation of Russian-Belarusian troops in Belarus continues.

CNBC was unable to verify the information in the report.

— Holly Ellyatt

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that U.S. midterm elections would not improve the “bad” relations between Moscow and Washington, as it dismissed allegations Russia was meddling in the U.S. vote, Russian state media reported.

“These elections are important, but it’s not necessary to exaggerate their importance in the short and medium-term for our relations,” the RIA Novosti news agency quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling reporters.

“These elections cannot change anything essential. Relations still are, and will remain, bad,” he added.

Peskov said Moscow was so used to hearing people say that Russia interferes in U.S. elections it was not paying any attention to new rounds of allegations.

The Kremlin spokesman also told reporters it was too early to talk about a dialogue with the United States on extending the New START nuclear arms treaty.

— Reuters

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that news updates on Ukraine’s progress at the front line of fighting with Russia might have decreased of late, but fighting remains intense.

“In the information space, there is still a certain decrease in the number of news coming from the frontlines. There are fewer reports than for example at the beginning of the fall. But this does not mean that the intensity of the fighting has decreased,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address Tuesday.

In the last few months, Ukraine launched successful counteroffensives in both the east of the country, around Kharkiv and southward toward Donetsk, as well as in the southern Kherson region, and made sizeable gains in the east in particular.

In recent weeks, however, the fighting appears to have entered a period of stalemate with neither side making any dramatic advances. Nonetheless, fighting remains intense around the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas of Donetsk, a factor touched upon by Zelenskyy last night.

“The situation is difficult on the entire front. Fierce positional battles continue in some areas, as before. And it is especially difficult in Donetsk region, as before. The occupiers are suffering extremely large-scale losses, but their order to move to the administrative border of Donetsk region has not changed. We are not surrendering a single centimeter of our land there,” he said.

In the partially occupied Kherson region in southern Ukraine, Zelenskyy said “we strengthen our positions, break Russian logistics, and consistently destroy the enemy’s potential to keep the south of our country under occupation” while in the east of the country “step by step we are moving towards the return of the Ukrainian flag to all our cities and communities. We are also actively strengthening the border.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian efforts to repair the Crimean Bridge — which links mainland Russia to the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014 — continues, “but it is unlikely to be fully operational until at least September 2023,” according to Britain’s Ministry of Defense.

The bridge, a source of pride for Moscow, was partially damaged in early October following an explosion that Russia blamed on Ukraine, although Kyiv did not claim responsibility for the attack. Two road spans of the bridge were severely damaged, partially collapsing into the Kerch Strait below. The railway span was damaged by fire.

The U.K. defense ministry noted that, on Nov.8, the road bridge was due to be closed to allow the movement and installation of a replacement 64-meter span, and that three more spans will be required to replace the damaged road sections of the bridge. Repairs are likely to take longer than expected, however.

“Although Crimean officials have claimed these additional spans will be in place by 20 December, a briefing provided to President Putin added that works to the other carriageway would cause disruption to road traffic until March 2023,” the ministry said on Twitter.

“Replacement of the damaged rail bridge has been contracted for completion by September 2023, although Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the repair timeline would be expedited,” it noted. With only track open, rail transport remains restricted and repair activity will be heavily dependent on weather conditions during the winter.

“The Crimean bridge attack has disrupted Russian logistics supplies for Crimea and southern Ukraine, reducing Russia’s ability to move military equipment and troops into the area by rail or road,” the ministry noted.

The damage to the bridge, coupled with the recent attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol and the probable withdrawal from Kherson in southern Ukraine, “all complicate the Russian government’s ability to paint a picture of military success,” the ministry said.

— Holly Ellyatt

The organization overseeing the export of Ukrainian agriculture products said there is a backlog of 80 vessels waiting to be loaded with cargo.

The U.N.-led Joint Coordination Center also said that about 13 loaded vessels are waiting for inspection in Turkish territorial waters.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw the reopening of three key Ukrainian ports. Since the deal with signed, more than 430 ships carrying a total of 10.1 million metric tons of grain and foodstuffs have left for destinations around the world.

Kyiv has previously blamed Moscow for holding up inspections and delaying vessel movements.

— Amanda Macias

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called on Russia to “respect the grain agreement and to continue it.”

“Russia’s weaponization of food and energy as part of its illegal war in Ukraine underlines the need to increase resilience, diversify energy supplies and sources and accelerate the transition to cleaner, greener economies,” Stoltenberg said in remarks at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, known as COP27.

Before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of its ex-Soviet neighbor, Ukraine and Russia accounted for almost a quarter of global grain exports, until those shipments came to a severe halt for nearly six months.

The Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw the reopening of three key Ukrainian ports. Since the deal with signed, more than 10 million metric tons of grain and foodstuffs have left for destinations around the world.

Read more about the Black Sea Grain Initiative here.

— Amanda Macias

Ukraine’s national energy company has imposed further restrictions on power use in the country as the country’s damaged power networks struggle to meet demand as the cold sets in.

National Energy Company Ukrenergo said on Telegram Tuesday that “emergency shutdowns” have been applied in the city of Kyiv, as well as in the surrounding region, and the Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Kharkiv and Poltava regions.

“Additional restrictions on consumption are necessary because, due to falling temperatures, consumption of electricity increases, which leads to an increase in the load on equipment and a shortage of electricity in the power system,” it said.

Ukraine’s energy network is under immense pressure following daily Russian assaults on the country’s energy infrastructure, particularly with the use of drones to attack facilities like substations. That has meant that energy company repair teams have been working round the clock to restore power to a number of regions.

Ukrenergo’s CEO Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said yesterday that the regions of Kyiv and Kharkiv were experiencing the most difficulties with emergency shutdowns being imposed as well as scheduled shutdowns

“The key task of Ukrenergo today is to repair the trunk networks in the central and northern regions so that the necessary amounts of power from power plants from other regions can be transferred there,” he said yesterday.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine has enough accumulated energy resources to get through the colder season.

“A relatively mild fall and the saving of energy resources allow for more gas to be pumped in than is withdrawn from gas storages,” he said, according to an NBC News translation.

He added that Ukraine has approximately 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas in its reserves.

— Amanda Macias

The secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council called for more “modern air defense, aircraft, tanks and long-range missiles.”

“Russian missiles must be destroyed before launch in the air, on land and at sea,” Oleksiy Danilov wrote on Twitter.

— Amanda Macias

Millions are already without power in Ukraine’s capital, and with further Russian attacks on energy infrastructure feared, Kyiv is bracing for the prospect of a winter without electricity, gas and water.

That has left officials and residents to confront a scenario in which civilians may be forced to consider leaving their homes to flee the freezing cold. 

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko appealed to the city’s 3 million residents to be prepared for a worst-case scenario, including making arrangements that would allow them to relocate and stay with friends or relatives elsewhere if it comes to it.

“We are doing everything to avoid this. But let’s be frank, our enemies are doing everything for the city to be without heat, without electricity, without water supply, in general, so we all die,” he told state media during a telethon.

“The future of the country and the future of each of us depends on how prepared we are for different situations,” he added.

During winter, Kyiv sees temperatures plunge below the freezing point, making the potential for power outages in the coming months particularly alarming.

Read more on NBC News.