Malaysia’s upcoming election is poised to be a battleground of uncertainty

According to Mustafa Izzuddin, senior international affairs analyst with Solaris Strategies Singapore, there are some hot electoral federal seats to watch out. They include Tambun in Perak, which is being contested by Anwar, and Gombak in Selangor, which is being defended by Azmin. 

“It could be Anwar’s political swansong if he is defeated and a referendum of his leader-of-the-opposition status and his chances of becoming prime minister of Malaysia,” Mustafa said. 

“If Azmin is defeated, it will be a testament to the Sheraton perpetrators being punished by the Malaysian electorate for bringing down the Pakatan Harapan government.”

As with past elections, all eyes would be on which party gets the largest share of the Malay vote followed by the Chinese votes and in some seats, the Indian votes as well, Mustafa said. 

There could also be some developments in the eastern state of Sabah where there are “shifting political alignments” among parties and coalitions, Mustafa added.

“Watchful eyes are on the electoral outcome in Sabah as East Malaysia will likely play a pivotal role on who forms the Federal government in Malaysia,” Mustafa said. 

Given the large number of parties and candidates, a hung parliament is also a likelihood, Mustafa added. 

“This would result in political horse-trading, brinkmanship and complex bargaining among the coalitions, including who becomes the next prime minister of Malaysia,” he said. 

History could repeat itself, with the risk of another coalition collapse — especially if the resulting coalition is fragile, Mustafa said. 

“In other words, a second Sheraton move cannot be ruled out if there is no clear majority win for any of the main coalitions.” 

That said, parties and coalitions should be able to cobble together a ruling coalition within two weeks or so, fragile or otherwise, associate director at consultancy Control Risks Harrison Cheng said.

“The [Malaysian] king would also be aware that a protracted period where there is no functioning government could significantly affect Malaysia’s reputation among investors,” he said. 

The king, known in Malay as the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, played a key role in reinstating balance during the political crisis between 2018 and 2020.

Without an effective government, uncertainty could trickle down to the business community, Cheng added.

“This would impact policy-making and passage of regulatory reforms meant to ease business conditions. Investors may experience delays in their approvals for new projects,” he said. 

The public’s sentiment has been mixed, mainly due to electoral fatigue and disillusionment with the politics of the country, according to Mustafa.

“At the same time, there are those who are patriotic and want their vote to express their choice on who represents them in their constituencies and which coalition should run the country,” he said. 

With youths between 18 and 21 years now in the electoral mix — making up one fifth of voters — the group could be a “kingmaker” in this election, Mustafa said.

Like the the Philippines’ Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr’s presidential win in May through what some have called the weaponization of social media, the internet could hold out to be an election battleground for Malaysia. 

However, there were no signs to suggest that any single party or coalition has been able to capture the youth vote in a decisive manner, Cheng pointed out. 

“For the more skeptical segments of the electorate, this election is the case of choosing the lesser of the two evil coalitions or the best of the worst coalitions on offer for Malaysians,” Mustafa said.