Key events that could impact trading: Monday’s 5 things to know

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Sarge986 president Stephen Guilfoyle and The Fitz-Gerald Group principal Keith Fitz-Gerald discuss how equities will perform the rest of the year and what’s in store for investors in 2023 on ‘The Claman Countdown.’

Here are the key events taking place on Monday that could impact trading.

EARNINGS REPORTS CONTINUE: Retailers will be in focus for the second-straight week with many specialty and second-tier names reporting quarterly results.

Beginning Monday, Urban Outfitters will be among the companies providing third-quarter earnings.

URBAN OUTFITTERS INC.

Also on Monday, look for Dell Technologies, Jacobs Solutions, jelly producer J. M. Smucker Co., Agilent Technologies and Zoom Video Communications.

BOB IGER RETURNS AS DISNEY CEO AFTER LESS THAN A YEAR IN RETIREMENTTicker Security Last Change Change % DELL DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. 42.04 +0.28 +0.67%J JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INC. 126.06 +1.76 +1.42%SJM THE J. M. SMUCKER CO. 146.14 +1.60 +1.11%A AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES INC. 146.19 +1.75 +1.21%ZM ZOOM VIDEO COMMUNICATIONS INC. 81.64 -0.95 -1.15%

Dell Technologies Inc., will share its latest earnings report on Monday. (Dell Technologies)

Tuesday, look for PC and printer-maker HP Inc., device maker Medtronic PLC, cloud computing company VMware Inc., soup giant Campbell Soup Co., Warner Music Group Corp., Baidu, Autodesk, and Analog Devices Inc.

HEWLETT-PACKARD Ticker Security Last Change Change % MDT MEDTRONIC PLC 81.30 +1.36 +1.70%VMW VMWARE INC. 116.68 +1.27 +1.10%ADI ANALOG DEVICES INC. 161.85 +0.38 +0.24%DE DEERE & CO. 414.26 +1.27 +0.31%CPB CAMPBELL SOUP CO. 51.56 +1.07 +2.12%WMG WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP. 27.38 -0.36 -1.30%ADSK AUTODESK INC. 210.37 -4.31 -2.01%BIDU BAIDU INC. 95.97 -3.61 -3.63%

Lastly, on Wednesday, agricultural machinery manufacturer Deere & Co. will report third-quarter earnings.

ECONOMIC REPORTS: It will be a relatively quiet week for economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened workweek.

All reports will be released on Wednesday.

Look for initial jobless claims, durable goods data and new home sales for October.

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Job seekers walk into the Gwinnett office of the Georgia Department of Labor in Gwinnett, Georgia. (Chris Rank/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

In addition, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for November will be released on Wednesday.

The minutes from the Fed’s Nov. 1-2 policy meeting are also slated for release.

MARKET RECAP: Stocks rose Friday, capping a tumultuous week with investors assessing the outlook for interest rates. 

The S&P 500 gained 18.78 points, or 0.5%, to 3965.34, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 1.10 points, or less than 0.1%, or 11146.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 199.37 points, or 0.6%, to 33745.69. 

All three indexes are down two of the past three weeks. Of the 11 sectors within the S&P 500, nine rose on Friday. Stocks in energy and communication services were the only laggards. 

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, Wednesday, Nov. 2, 2022. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig / AP Images)

A slowdown in inflation sent stocks ripping higher last week, and the dollar and bond yields into retreat. The S&P last week wrapped up its best stretch since the summer. 

But in recent days, hopes that the Federal Reserve will back off its campaign of aggressive interest-rate increases have faded somewhat. 

"We had a 6% rally in the S&P 500 last week. We don't think the Fed wants to see a return of the animal spirits," said Derek Amey, co-chief investment officer at StrategicPoint Investment Advisors in Rhode Island.

Amey said he is hiding out from the volatility by holding industrials and healthcare stocks along with bonds. 

Central-bank officials including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard made the case this week to keep raising rates to curb decades high inflation. 

Bullard said Thursday that the Fed's policy rate could rise higher than traders in interest-rate futures are expecting. Strong labor-market and retail-sales data, meanwhile, suggested the economy has a way to go before higher borrowing costs cause the kind of downturn that could prompt the Fed to reverse course. 

All of that has sent jitters through the stock market – though the S&P 500 is still about 11% higher than its recent low on Oct. 12.

HOME SALES: On the economic front, U.S. existing home sales fell for a ninth straight month in October as high mortgage rates pushed buyers out of the market. 

"There is nothing that guarantees that inflation is behind us," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. "Where it settles out is really what's most important here. Do we go back to its pre-Covid trend of 1 to 2% or settle out at 3 to 4%?" 

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A “House For Sale” sign is visible in front of an existing home. (Tim Boyle/Getty Images / Getty Images)

Boockvar said he's betting that inflation will be around 3% to 4% in 2023. 

He plans to continue holding Treasury inflation-protected securities and stocks within the precious metals and energy sectors, which tend to do better in inflationary times.

TREASURY UPDATES: Treasury yields are inverted, with short-term U.S. government borrowing costs above longer-term yields. 

That dynamic has, in the past, often been predictive of a recession. 

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.817% from 3.774% Thursday. 

SEC STEPPED UP ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITY IN FISCAL 2022, ASSESSED RECORD PENALTIES

Many investors expect the Fed to stop raising rates early next year but to keep them elevated for some time. That could continue to challenge equities, particularly the ones with lofty valuations. 

"Once the Fed begins to see cracks in the employment data and inflation, January and February we'll head for a pause," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. 

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Cardillo said he expects the S&P 500 to rally to 4150 points by the end of this year, citing historical data that stocks tend to do better during the Christmas holiday. That would be 4.5% higher than its current level.