Dow sheds nearly 500 points, stocks finish lower on worries of further Fed rate hikes

Though investor concerns are mounting over Costco‘s ability to match prior sales periods, UBS says the retailer is poised to perform well in the first quarter.

“Altogether, we think COST has every right to win this holiday season & beyond,” said UBS analyst Michael Lasser in a note to clients.

He said Costco has “solid growth prospects to support premium valuation” and sales should remain solid in the first quarter despite worries over sliding monthly sales. November sales data showed a continued sequential slowdown, with September’s 8.6% growth followed October’s 6.7% and November’s 5.3%.

However, the wholesaler said sales improved throughout November, leading Lasser to believe the company could be a winner among late holiday shoppers. He also said sales could stabilize in the first quarter as some headwinds recede. Lasser estimates the first quarter comparable sales figure will come out to a gain of 6.9%.

But he said cause for concern is not totally unwarranted. Lasser expects to membership grow by 4.3% to $987 million in the quarter, which would be slightly under expectations of $1.011 billion.

While reiterating the stock as a buy, he lowered the price target to $580 from $595, which still presents an upside of 14.7% from where the stock closed Friday. Lasser said the new price reflected a smaller multiple, which he said was justified given the potential impacts to retail as a whole in the event of further consumer pullback.

Still, “at current levels,” he said, “we think its upside outweighs its downside.”

— Alex Harring

Etsy will continue outperforming, according to Jefferies, and remains the firm’s top pick among e-commerce and mid-cap interest stocks.

Analyst John Colantuoni said the online marketplace is still a buy with a 25% upside because it will see a 9% to 10% growth in buyers between 2023 and 2025, with a larger share coming from the undersaturated international market. Gross merchandise sales will rise 3% to 4% per buyer over the same period excluding foreign exchange headwinds, which will help propel the company to a 13% compound annual growth rate.

The company will similarly see an upside to both top and bottom lines, he said.

Meanwhile, the current valuation is “attractive,” making the risk-reward ratio attractive. Etsy shares have lost 36.2% so far this year.

“We see upside to consensus revenue/EBITDA, driven by take rate upside and margin tailwinds from fixed cost leverage,” he said in a note to clients. “We see upside to estimates resulting in multiple support as expectations for forward profitability increase.”

— Alex Harring

It’s time for investors to consider profit-taking, according to Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity.

Despite the recent rally, the risk-reward for equities is likely capped as the S&P 500 nears the bank’s original tactical target range of 4,000 to 4,150, Wilson said in a note to clients Monday.

“As suggested two weeks ago, for this tactical rally to go higher, back end rates would need to fall,” he wrote. “Fast forward to today and that’s what has happened. However, we are now right into our original upside targets and we recommend taking profits before the Bear returns in earnest.”

— Samantha Subin

Expects bonds to shine in 2023, Truist Advisory Services says.

Fixed-income assets — particularly U.S. Treasuries and investment-grade municipal bonds — should offer stability to portfolios and generate steady income in 2023 as investors navigate continued volatility, the firm wrote in a note to clients Monday.

“The gap between bond yields and the earnings yield for stocks, which is the inverse of the P/E ratio, has closed dramatically,” Truist said. “This simply means that there is now more competition for stocks than there has been for more than a decade. This has put downward pressure on equity valuations.”

Bonds, the firm wrote, are poised to compete with stocks, which have struggled with less attractive valuations as yields rise.

Heading into the new year, Truist says investors should remain defensively positioned given that it expects one of the worst years for global growth and a base case that accounts for a 2023 U.S. recession, with a potentially deeper downturn occurring in Europe. The firm also expects the S&P to trade between 3,400 and 4,300 over the next year, making the near-term risk-reward less favorable.

Given this backdrop, Truist suggests a “barbell strategy” to equity investing, favoring cyclical sectors like energy and industrials, and defensive areas like health care and consumer staples.

“Energy remains relatively cheap, is helped by a refocus on corporate cash flow, and is a good hedge should the global economy prove stronger than anticipated and on a China reopening,” the firm wrote, highlighting rising military defense spending as a potential tailwind for industrials.

— Samantha Subin

Stocks hovered near session lows as the final hour of trading kicked off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 526 points, or 1.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid by 2% and nearly 2.2%, respectively.

— Samantha Subin

Domino’s Pizza is set to resume its leadership role in 2022, according to BTIG.

Analyst Peter Saleh upgraded the restaurant stock to buy from neutral, saying in a note to clients that Domino’s pricing power could fuel a rebound.

“We believe margins have bottomed and are set to rebound in 2023 on the heels of higher menu pricing and organic improvements in driver availability. We expect Domino’s to enter 2023 with the highest level of menu pricing in more than a decade, and expect management could take price on the $7.99 carryout offering, further bolstering sales and margins next year,” the note said.

Domino’s was one of the best performing stocks in the U.S. over the previous decade, but it has dropped more than 30% in 2022. The stock was down slightly on Monday.

—Jesse Pound, Michael Bloom

Boeing was the only name in the Dow Jones Industrial Average holding onto gains during Monday’s session.

The aerospace stock gained 1.4%, rising for a second session following a report that it’s nearing a deal with United Airlines for a major 787 Dreamliner order.

Salesforce was the biggest laggard in the 30-stock index, falling 7.4%. The drop in shares came as the company announced the departure of Slack founder and CEO Stewart Butterfield.

— Samantha Subin

Oil prices were lower in afternoon trading, as Federal Reserve rate hikes worried the market more than a European Union ban on Russian crude.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down more than 3%, after rising sharply in early trading. The EU’s sanctions on Russian seaborne crude went into effect at midnight. There was also a $60 a barrel cap put on Russian oil by G-7 countries.

WTI was trading close to $77 a barrel, down 3.7%, after rising as high as $82.72 earlier in the day.

“Fears about the Fed crept back into the market,” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

Kilduff said stronger U.S. data rattled investors, who expect the Fed interest rates hikes could cause a recession. The oil market was trading with stocks and other risk assets, he added.

“The jury is still out as to whether we’ll lose a significant amount of Russian oil,” said Kilduff. “There’s a rich market out there for black market crude oil. There’s a rich market out there for black market crude oil. There’s a lot of chicanery on the high seas, like ship-to-ship transfers.”

— Patti Domm

The odds of a soft landing for the economy are becoming increasingly less likely as the yield curve inversion deepens, said Michael Darda, MKM Partners’ chief economist and market strategist.

“I certainly hope for a soft landing,” he told CNBC’s “The Exchange” on Monday. “I think we all do, and no one wants the economy to go into a recession and people to be thrown out of work. But, I do think it’s an increasingly narrow path — or window — as Fed Chair Powell puts it, to a soft landing scenario.”

The broadening inversion of the Treasury yield curve is perhaps one of the main reasons that a soft landing is becoming less likely, he said. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury notes last stood at 77 basis points.

At this point, Darda said he would slow, or potentially pause rate hikes, and wait for more information, focusing primarily on forward-looking data like the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, breakeven rate.

“The Fed’s focused on coincident and lagging indicators here in terms of when to call it quits, and I’m afraid a hard landing scenario is more probable than not,” Darda said.

— Samantha Subin

Wall Street’s strategists expect stocks to trade poorly in the first part of next year, and some say the market is likely to test its lows in the first quarter.

Strategists say there is still a chance for a yearend Santa rally, but the stock market is already trading on the same concerns of recession and the earnings slowdown likely to take it lower next year.

Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist, expects a shallow recession may already have begun.

Kleintop released his 2023 outlook Monday, and he predicts the first half will be worse for stocks than the back half of the year, with a choppiness similar to the past six months.

“We see positive returns for the year, although high volatility continues for the next few months,” he said. “You’re going to pay a price for a better year next year.”

— Patti Domm

The Wall Street rout gained steam during Monday afternoon trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 538 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid by 1.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

— Sarah Min

Hedge fund manager Dan Niles said the market is in another bear-market rally and investor sentiment could turn sour again in the new year.

The founder and senior portfolio manager of the Satori Fund said some investors with the “fear of missing out” started to buy the dip in the market. Another catalyst is investors adding exposure to Chinese stocks after the country started to ease its Covid Zero policy.

However, after the year-end rally, stocks could see more losses as corporate earnings are about to deteriorate, he said.

“We still believe that after you get sort of this next bear market rally running, it’s last gasp, then you go and retest or break to new lows when you get into 2023,” Niles said. “Our view is no different that this is just another bear market rally, but trying to take advantage of that things are going pretty well.”

— Yun Li

UBS economists doubt the Federal Reserve will be able to stick the soft landing.

Due to a combination of a weakening labor market, slower consumer spending and high interest rates, the firm’s experts see the chances as slim that the central bank’s inflation-fighting efforts won’t result in a contraction.

“Recession probability models point to roughly 2/3 odds of a hard landing,” UBS said in a client note.

“Households are running down savings rapidly. Credit card balances are rising. Goods spending remains very elevated. House prices are falling. Wealth is moving lower,” it added.

The firm sees flat growth this year and a 1% decline in 2024 amid “a stalling labor market expansion, and [personal consumption expenditures] inflation near 2% in Q4 of next year.”

“The full effects of monetary policy tightening remain to be seen. Plus, we estimate fiscal policy is still a drag in 2023 too,” UBS added. “We think undoing the imbalances under the strain of higher interest rates should be sufficient to push the US into contraction in 2023, after the current momentum wanes.”

As a result, the Fed likely will halt rate hikes following 0.5 percentage point increases in both December and February, according to the outlook. In addition, the firm expects the Fed to end the reduction in its bond holdings by the end of 2023.

—Jeff Cox

A short-term pullback in equities isn’t out of the question over the next one to two weeks after the recent move higher, Canaccord Genuity says.

“A short-term pause/pullback is likely as equity markets consolidate after reclaiming a key technical level near their 200-day moving averages,” wrote analyst Javed Mirza in a note to clients Monday.

He expects a “consolidation phase” for the benchmark index in the short-term as it nears a resistance range of 4,171 to 4,185.

That said, a consistent close above the index’s 200-day moving average — which occurred Friday — would suggest a changing pattern longer term. The 200-day is a momentum indicator that’s based on the average of the last 200 closing levels. The S&P was at 4,044 as of Monday.

“A multi-day close above this level would confirm the intermediate-term trend is now up, a strong technical positive,” Mirza said.

— Samantha Subin

Shares of First Republic Bank fell more than 5% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight. The firm said it expects more revenue pressure for the bank than is priced into the stock.

Analyst Manan Gosalia said First Republic Bank is focused on high growth even as funding costs rise, implying near-term pressure on the bank’s net interest margins (NIM) and net interest income (NII). NIM measures the net interest income the bank generates against the outgoing interest it pays to clients.

“While we believe that increased market penetration and household acquisition provide attractive opportunities for longer-term growth, we see near-term downside to NIM and NII as the bank leans into high-cost, short-dated CDs and FHLB borrowings to fund their high growth strategy,” Gosalia wrote in a Monday note.

The analyst expects to identify a “better entry point” for First Republic Bank after gaining clarity on future interest hikes from the Federal Reserve.

— Sarah Min

Stocks hit session lows as midday trading kicked off.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 410 points, or 1.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid 1.5% and 1.6%, respectively.

— Samantha Subin

Restaurant stock Yum Brands could be a big winner in 2023, according to investment firm Cowen.

Analyst Andrew Charles named Yum a top pick for next year, saying in a note to clients on Monday that the restaurant company has fundamental upside in this economic environment.

“YUM’s diversified, asset-light business model positions the stock favorably as inflation remains elevated. Key 2023 catalysts are Taco Bell U.S. (~30% of EBIT) SSS upside & China (~15% of EBIT) reopening potential,” the note said.

Charles said that Yum should trade at a higher multiple, pointing out that the stock typically trades at a premium to rival McDonald’s.

“Applying this premium to current dynamics suggests a $140/share fair value that we view as a stepping stone to our $155 price target over our 12-month time horizon,” the note said.

Yum’s shares are down about 6.5% year to date, and were little changed near $130 per share on Monday morning.

— Jesse Pound, Michael Bloom

Financial conditions eased dramatically last week, countering the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow the economy and bring down inflation, according to Goldman Sachs.

The firm’s closely watched US Financial Conditions Index dropped to 99.71 for the period, a decline of 19.1 basis points, or just over 16%. Goldman noted that the easing came amid lower Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. dollar, rising stock market prices and lower credit spreads.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, real conditions declined even further, tumbling 24.6 basis points to 99.31, a decline of nearly 20%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell repeatedly has stressed the impact rate increases are designed to have on financial conditions. Tighter conditions reflect less economic activity and tend to pull inflation lower.

However, financial markets rallied sharply last Wednesday after Powell said he expects the Fed to reduce the level of its rate hikes, probably as soon as next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Stocks were mostly lower Monday morning, as investors viewed economic data showing higher wages and strong service sector activity as likely to push the Fed into a more hawkish stance.

—Jeff Cox

A possible recession in 2023 means that the S&P 500 will need to set new lows, unless the stock market breaks a streak that goes back to World War II.

Bank of America technical research strategist Stephen Suttmeier explained in a note to clients that history suggests the market doesn’t bottom until a recession has already begun.

“History suggests that if the US economy experiences a recession, the SPX bottoms out during the recession and not before. Only the March 1945-October 1945 recession saw the SPX rally ahead of and throughout the recession,” the note said.

Check out the full story and Bank of America’s data on CNBC Pro.

— Jesse Pound

Supply continues to improve for Apple’s iPhones, with lead times for the Pro models moderating, according to JPMorgan’s Apple Product Availability Tracker.

That indicates “Apple is cycling past the worst and making progress in relation to supply chain challenges,” analyst Samik Chatterjee wrote in a note Sunday. “That said, lead times are still tracking above the lead times seen prior to the COVID outbreak in Zhengzhou, China, and ongoing challenges around reaching normalized levels of production could limit the degree of recovery within Dec-qtr.”

Globally, lead times are in line for the base iPhone 14 model, compared to the iPhone 13 series in 2021. They are longer for the Pro and Pro Max due to the supply situation, compared to the prior model, but have come down to 29 days from last week’s 33 days, he said.

In the U.S., lead times are stable for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus at four days each. The Pro and Pro Max lead times are now at 25 days, compared to 33 days last week.

Apple shares are down nearly 17% year to date.

— Michelle Fox

It’s time to sell Silvergate Capital following the FTX collapse, according to Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Manan Gosalia downgraded shares to underweight from equal weight, saying there is more revenue pressure on the crypto bank than investors are pricing in.

“The ongoing stress in the crypto ecosystem post the FTX collapse drives significant uncertainty on deposit flows at SI in the near term,” Gosalia wrote in a Monday note.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read the full story here.

— Sarah Min

Services activity in November was even stronger than expected, showing a 30th consecutive month of growth, according to the latest ISM reading Monday.

The index posted a 56.5% reading, representing the level of businesses reporting expansion. That was better than the Dow Jones estimate of 53.7% and 2.1 percentage points higher than October.

The imports sub-index jumped 9.1 points to 59.5%, and the business activity and production gauge rose 9 points to 64.7%. On the inflation front, the prices index edged lower to 70%, while the employment index rose back into expansion territory to 51.5%, up 2.4 percentage points.

Stocks added to losses following the release as investors worry that a stronger-than-expected economy could force the Fed to continue its aggressive monetary policy moves.

In other economic news, manufacturers’ new orders rose 1% in October, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 0.7%, the Commerce Department reported. Excluding defense, orders were up 0.9%, while the ex-transportation gain came in at 0.8%.

—Jeff Cox

S&P Global Services PMI came in at 46.2 for November, marking the fifth consecutive month of declining services activity.

That’s a slight improvement from the mid-month reading but the weakest level going back to August.

— Samantha Subin

Stocks kicked off the week lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 210 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite slid by 0.6% each.

— Samantha Subin

It’s time to buy Royal Caribbean Group, according to Wells Fargo.

Analyst Daniel Politzer named Royal Caribbean his top cruise pick for 2023, saying the company’s past success raising prices and capacity, and healthy balance sheet, will help the company outpace peers next year.

“[We] believe RCL is best positioned to outperform in 2023,” Politzer wrote in a Monday note. “It has historically grown EBITDA/ALBD, should benefit from strong pricing/itinerary optimization, and as we demonstrate in this note, has the best balance sheet/tangible path to deleveraging relative to its cruise peers.”

The analyst expects cruise line operators will have an attractive setup next year as travel rebounds from their pandemic lows. Shares of Royal Caribbean Group are off 21% in 2022, while shares of Carnival are down 50% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ stock is off by roughly 20%.

The analyst’s $67 price target implies roughly 10% upside from Friday’s close.

— Sarah Min

VF Corp‘s stock shed more than 6% before the bell after the owner of North Face and Timberland cut its profit outlook, citing weaker-than-expected consumer demand.

The apparel company said it now expects adjusted earnings per share to range between $2 and $2.20 for the year, compared to previous expectations of $2.40 to $2.50.

VF also said revenue growth in the second half of the year should range between 3% to 4% growth in constant dollars, down from previous expectations of 5% to 6% growth.

The company also announced Benno Dorer will serve as its new interim president and CEO as Steve Rendle retires and it searches for a permanent replacement.

— Samantha Subin

Casino stocks linked to Macao rose during Monday’s premarket on hopes of easing Covid-19 restrictions.

Las Vegas Sands‘ stock rose about 2% in the premarket, attempting to for its ninth daily gain in a row. That would be its longest streak since an 11-day rally in early 2018.

MGM Resorts gained 2.8% amid an upgrade to a buy rating from Truist. Shares of Melco Resorts & Entertainment and Wynn gained 5.6% and 2.8%, respectively.

The rise in casino stocks comes as China tempers virus testing rules in some cities, raising hopes of potentially more easing ahead.

— Samantha Subin, Nicholas Wells

The fact that markets have digested a slew of bad news over the last few months is a reason for investors to be bullish going forward, said Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy.

“Everybody is talking about what could go wrong, which is actually bullish for the market,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Monday. “So, you know, I think the key reason to be optimistic is that we’re all talking about this bad stuff that’s going to happen.”

Compared to the start of the year, markets have digested and grown accustomed to Federal Reserve tightening, surging inflation, and uncertainties in China. This, Subramanian said, is a key reason to remain bullish going forward.

Despite an optimistic outlook, Subramanian sees ongoing risks to the mega-cap technology stocks making up the biggest cohort of the S&P 500. Earnings expectations, she said, are also 15% too high.

Near term, investors should brace themselves for a volatile January the higher the market goes in December. However, they should remain invested in the market, she added.

“The key risk right now is not being invested in any equities,” Subramanian said, adding that those with longer time horizons should consider adding exposure to sectors. “I think you need to pick your spots.”

— Samantha Subin

Tesla shares fell more than 4% before the bell on news that the electric vehicle giant is reportedly planning to cut output for its Model Y by more than 20% in December at its plant in Shanghai.

News of the planned cut, first reported by Bloomberg, cited sources familiar with the matter.

— Samantha Subin

Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Mullan downgraded Starbucks to hold from buy, saying that further gains will be harder to come by for the coffee chain stock.

?[We] are not negative on SBUX; but rather we are simply moving to Hold on what we deem to be a balanced Risk Reward scenario at present,” Mullan wrote in a Monday note. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Sarah Min

Shares of United Airlines gained more than 1% in the premarket after Morgan Stanley upgraded the airline to overweight from equal weight.

“After three years of uncertainty when the market was either too cold or too hot, 2023 could be the year when conditions are ‘just right,’ potentially delivering earnings well above market expectations,” The bank said in a Monday note.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Sarah Min

European markets were slightly lower on Monday, bucking a positive trend in Asia-Pacific markets overnight, where shares rose on Monday as China relaxed Covid testing rules in some cities and signaled more easing may come.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% in early trade, with food and beverage stocks falling 0.8% as most sectors slid into the red. Basic resources added 1%.

– Elliot Smith

Goldman Sachs sees one opportunity in electric vehicles that’s on an “upward trend.”

This trend will gain pace as EVs become “ever more technology driven” and simpler to build, said Goldman analysts in a Dec. 1 report.

That’s set to benefit one global stock, said Goldman, which gives the stock up to 90% upside in its bull case for the firm.

CNBC’s Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Weizhen Tan

A veteran Schroders fund manager has named two global retailers that are about to ‘dominate’ their sector.

Andrew Brough, who runs the Schroder UK Mid Cap Fund, said the two conservatively run companies are taking market share ahead of a recession by silently acquiring failing competitors cheaply.

One of those stocks has already risen by 30% this year while its benchmark index has declined by 29%.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Ganesh Rao

Markets could be volatile and in search of a catalyst in the week ahead, as investors consider year-end trades in the lull before the Federal Reserve’s December 13-14 policy meeting.

“We’re in the Fed quiet period,” said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “We’re in between earnings seasons. I think the things that are going to drive the market action will be geopolitical as well as the headline economic data.”

Read the full deep dive on what to expect in the week ahead.

— Patti Domm

On Monday, investors are expecting the ISM Services Index for November, which is expected to read 53.7 for the month, according to consensus estimates from the Dow Jones. The index was at 54.4 in the prior month.

The data is set to release 10 a.m. ET.

— Sarah Min

U.S. stock futures are little changed on Sunday night as investors await more economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s December policy meeting.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 15 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.04% and 0.05%, respectively.

— Sarah Min