Morgan Stanley upgrades Dabur to ‘overweight’ and raises target price, stock hits 52-week high

“As we expect rural demand to recover and growth to improve, we believe the company’s recent underperformance could reverse over the next few months,” Morgan Stanley said.

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Global research firm Morgan Stanley has upgraded Dabur India stock to overweight from equal weight and has raised the price target from Rs 578 to Rs 660 per share, an upside of 10 percent.

“While demand trends are yet to reflect a recovery in rural demand, we see accelerating signals that the rural weakness recorded over the last four quarters could be turning a corner. All of this together suggests higher income levels in rural India over the coming months. This augers well for Dabur as over 45 percent of its revenue is linked to the rural economy. It also has the highest rural exposure in our coverage universe,” said Morgan Stanley.

“We see the deceleration in Dabur’s healthcare portfolio slowing down as base effect sets in. Going forward, we believe the food & beverage portfolio is set up for strong growth, led by innovation, growing food businesses, rural opportunities for beverages, and the recently announced Badshah acquisition in the spice category,” it added.

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“We expect top-line growth and margins to improve in H2 and FY24, aided by rural recovery and easing inflation. We forecast 9 percent, 13 percent and 12 percent revenue growth in F23, F24 and F25. We expect margin improvement in H2 F23 to partially offset the weakness in H1 F23, and to show YoY improvements in F24 and F25. We expect an earnings CAGR over F22-F25 of 14 percent against 6 percent over F19-F22,” it added.

Dabur India has underperformed the BSE Sensex by 7ppt YTD. Its relative valuation discount to Hindustan Unilever has widened to 17 percent against 3-year average of 13 percent.

Also read: RBI Policy| MPC hikes repo rate by 35 bps; refuses to lower guard on inflation

At 10:15 hrs Dabur India was quoting at Rs 602.00, up Rs 9.80, or 1.65 percent on BSE. It has touched an intraday high of Rs 604.60 and an intraday low of Rs 597. It has touched a 52-week high of Rs 604.60.

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