Reliance gains as Jefferies raises target price to Rs 3,100 on green hydrogen boost
“Initial incentives of Rs 19,740 crore is only a beginning and is dwarfed by subsidies announced by the US and the EU. Any meaningful capital subsidy to RIL should aid $ 8 billion valuation of its green H2 foray,” Jefferies said.
Jefferies has a buy tag on the heavyweight stock with up to 42 percent upside or price target of Rs 3,500 from current level. Jefferies believes that Reliance’s recovery in gross refining margin (GRMs) was ahead of its estimates. Faster consolidation in telecom leads to tariff upside in Jio while possible public listing of Jio re-rating valuation multiple, it said.
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Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) traded in the green in the early trading hours on Tuesday and was one of the positive contributors to the upswing in the Nifty and the Sensex.
At 11:22am, Reliance Industries was quoting at Rs 2,463.10, up Rs 18.40, or 0.75 percent, on the BSE. It touched an intraday high of Rs 2,469.45 and an intraday low of Rs 2,452.
Global research and broking firm Jefferies has a ‘buy’ tag on the heavyweight stock with up to 42 percent upside from the current level or a price target of Rs 3,100.
Jefferies believes that Reliance’s recovery in gross refining margin (GRMs) was ahead of its estimates. Faster consolidation in telecom leads to tariff upside in Jio, while possible public listing of Jio re-rating valuation multiple, it said.
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The research firm said that the EU and India’s 2030 green hydrogen (H2) targets translate into a $74 billion total addressable market (TAM) for Reliance’s electrolyser manufacturing business.
“RIL would replace gray H2 with green at its refineries and could monetise the captive green H2 production by moving it into an InvIT and inducting investors. It values RIL’s electrolyser manufacturing business at a 20 percent discount to the European benchmark and added the cap value of its captive H2 consumption,” the research firm said.
“We discount its FY30 fair value at 12 percent weighted average cost of capital (WACC) to get a June 2023 FV of $8 billion. Any meaningful capital subsidy from the government would aid the valuation of its green hydrogen foray,” the foreign brokerage said.
The government approved the Green Hydrogen Mission to develop 5 million tonne (MT) capacity and 125GW associated renewable energy (RE) capacity by 2030. The Phase I will focus on the existing hydrogen users and electrolyser capacity creation, while Phase II would focus on new customer industries, according to the Jefferies report.
“Initial incentives of Rs 19,740 crore is only a beginning and is dwarfed by subsidies announced by the US and the EU. Any meaningful capital subsidy to RIL should aid $ 8 billion valuation of its green H2 foray,” the global research firm added.
(With agency inputs)
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