Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as investors weigh risks of more hikes ahead

Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday talked tough on inflation, warning that the fight is not over and could result in higher interest rates than markets are anticipating.

Speaking to an agribusiness conference in Arkansas, Waller said the January jobs report, showing nonfarm payroll growth of 517,000, indicated that the employment market is “robust” and could fuel consumer spending that would maintain upward pressure on inflation.

Consequently, he said the Fed needs to maintain its current plan of action, which has seen eight interest rate hikes since March 2022.

“We are seeing that effort begin to pay off, but we have farther to go,” Waller told the Arkansas State University Agribusiness Conference in prepared remarks. “And, it might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting. But I will not hesitate to do what is needed to get my job done.”

The comments come a week after the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee approved a quarter percentage point increase that took the benchmark borrowing rate to a target range of 4.5%-4.7%, the highest since October 2007.

— Jeff Cox

U.S. wholesale inventories for December rose by just 0.1% from the revised November level, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That’s the lowest month-over-month change since July 2020.

Total adjusted inventories of merchant wholesalers, except sales branches and offices, came in at $932.9 billion, up 17.6% from December 2021.

December’s data also came in line with the consensus estimate of economists polled by Dow Jones.

— Michelle Fox

If financial conditions continue to loosen, the Federal Reserve could be forced to push interest rates higher than expected, New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday.

By the Chicago Fed’s measure, conditions are at their loosest since April 2022. That has come despite eight interest rate hikes from the central bank in its attempt to rein in inflation.

“If financial conditions … loosened a lot or got much more supportive of growth, that would be a factor that would have to influence our thinking about the future path of the economy and what we need to do in terms of monetary policy in order to achieve our goal,” Williams said during a Wall Street Journal roundtable.

Looser conditions “might might imply a higher interest rate to make sure that we’re getting to the goals that we’re trying to achieve,” he added.

As things stand, he said projections in December of a fed funds rate in the 5%-5.5% range are probably accurate, implying increases of another 0.5 percentage point or so from the current level.

—Jeff Cox