Tanla shares rise with volumes as street bets on upcoming anti-phishing platform

Yes Securities has increased its target price by 59% to Rs 1046 a share and maintained its buy rating after the company reported earnings in line with estimates.

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Shares of Tanla Platform Ltd surged on February 16 amid higher trading volumes. The stock jumped as much as 10 percent to hit an intraday high of Rs 664 apiece on the BSE.

On February 15th, Tanla Platforms had announced the forthcoming launch of a first-of-its-kind global anti-phishing platform, called Wisely ATP, designed to safeguard citizens, trusted brands, and the digital economy.

The platform will be unveiled at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona on February 27th. According to Tanla, the rise in mobile penetration in India has resulted in SMS phishing scams becoming one of the most prevalent forms of cybercrime, with over 120 million scams reported annually, leading to losses of approximately $16 billion (or Rs. 130,000 crore).

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India has already granted approval for the establishment of a regulatory sandbox for the Wisely platform.

Recently, Yes Securities has increased its target price on Tanla Platform by 59 percent to Rs 1046 and maintained ‘buy’ call after the company reported earnings in line with estimates.

The company posted revenue of Rs 869.6 crore, reflecting a 2.2 percent quarter-on-quarter increase but a 1.7 percent year-on-year decrease in the December quarter. The Enterprise revenue declined by 3.4 percent year-on-year but improved by 2.0 percent quarter-on-quarter. On the other hand, the Platform business experienced significant growth, with an 18.8 percent year-on-year increase and a 4.1 percent quarter-on-quarter increase.

In the first nine months of FY23, the company acquired 210 new customers, generating a total of Rs 322 million in revenue. Notably, 31 percent of these new customers were added via WhatsApp. In the third quarter, Trubloq processed a staggering 82 billion messages with more than 60 percent volume market share.

The gross margin of the enterprise business showed growth, increasing from 17.2percent in Q2FY23 to 17.9 percent in Q3FY23. Conversely, the gross margin of the Platform business experienced a slight dip, declining from 96.5 percent in Q2FY23 to 96.0 percent in the current quarter. The company’s net profit increased by 5.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, which can be attributed to lower taxation and finance costs.

Yes Securities said that Tanla is a strong contender in the growing market for CPaaS solutions, which are increasingly in demand across various industries for achieving improved customer engagement. The market is expected to experience continued growth, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 29 percent from CY20 to CY25E, driven by the rapid adoption of multichannel communication. This growth is expected to be further fueled by increased smartphone penetration and greater regulatory push towards mandatory SMS alerts.

The adoption of Tanla’s CPaaS-based A2P messaging is driving volume growth for both the enterprise and platform segments of the company, and the rising share of the higher-margin platform segment is expected to drive the company’s EBITDA margin. Overall, Tanla is well-positioned to benefit from these trends in the CPaaS market, the Yes Securities report added.

“We estimate revenue CAGR of 14.0 percent over FY22?24E with average EBIT margin of 18.2 percent over the period. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs 1,046/share based on P/E of 22x(unchanged valuation multiple) on FY24E. The stock trades at P/E of 20.1x/14.2x on FY23E/FY24E”, Yes Securities said in its 23 January report.