Tata Steel gains ahead of Q4 results. Here’s what brokerages expect

Motilal Oswal expects EBITDA/tonne to improve to $115 from $69 in the last quarter, however still lower than $249 in Q4 FY22

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Tata Steel shares opened higher on May 2, ahead of the steel major’s Q4 earnings report later in the day. The company’s net profit is expected to drop over 91 percent year-on-year to Rs 955 crore due to weak performance in the Europe business, as per brokerages. However, India business performance is expected to be strong.

At 9:25 am, the stock was quoting at Rs 108.60 on the NSE, higher by 0.7 percent from the previous close.

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Tata Steel’s revenue from operations is expected to fall 13 percent YoY to Rs 60,458 crore in the quarter gone by. “We estimate Europe to report EBITDA loss of US $111/ton led by weak demand resulting in adverse product mix partly offset sequentially moderating costs,” said Kotak Institutional Equities in a report.

However, the India business continues to be strong. In the provisional update shared last month, Tata Steel said that production volume in India jumped by 5.1 percent on-year to 5.15 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23.

Tata Steel India’s delivery volume was up 0.6 percent, at 5.15 mt in Q4 FY23, as compared to 5.12 mt in the year-ago period.

In the European market, it recorded a slump of 11.3 percent on-year in terms of the deliveries made. Tata Steel Europe’s delivery volume during the quarter came in at 2.13 mt, as compared to 2.40 mt clocked in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal.

“Management guidance on continuation, pension liability and support for UK business is most important,” as per analysts at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The domestic brokerage firm expects EBITDA/tonne to improve to $115 from $69 in the last quarter, however still lower than $249 in Q4 FY22.