Ukraine war live updates: Putin warned of arrest if he attends summit; Russia had 100,000 casualties in 5 months, U.S. says

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday ordered his government to “clarify” the procedure for how Russian companies can make dividend payments to shareholders from so-called “unfriendly countries.”

Russia considers all countries that have hit it with sanctions over its military campaign in Ukraine to be “unfriendly”. It has hit back with its own package of counter-sanctions and capital controls which restrict the ability of companies and investors from these countries to transfer profits or dividends back home.

The Kremlin said proposals on dividend payments should “include conditions that residents expand their production in Russia, develop businesses based on new technologies and invest in the Russian economy.”

Putin asked the government to come up with proposals by May 20, a document published by the Kremlin said.

Scores of foreign companies have exited the Russian market since Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine last February, while many others are still trying to wind down their businesses or waiting for approval from a government commission to sell their assets.

The Kremlin triggered fresh fears it could be prepared to nationalize foreign businesses last week with a decree to take “temporary control” of the Russian assets of Finnish energy group Fortum and Germany’s Uniper in a move it said was retaliatory and could be repeated.

— Reuters

Military logistical problems “remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign” in Ukraine, according to the latest intelligence update from the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence.

In a post on Twitter, the ministry commented on recent reports on Russian military-linked social media accounts claiming that Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, had been dismissed.

Mizintsev held the military logistics portfolio, and had only been in post for eight months, the ministry noted.

“Mizintsev’s sacking was not immediately confirmed, but speculation about his future highlights how logistics problems remain at the heart of Russia’s struggling campaign in Ukraine. Russia does not have enough munitions to achieve success on the offensive,” the U.K. noted in its daily intelligence update.

“Paucity of ammunition drives internal divisions, most notably between Russia’s Ministry of Defence and Wagner Group,” the ministry noted.

“Russia continues to give the highest priority to mobilising its defence industry, but it is still failing to meet war time demands. While Russia’s political leaders persist in demanding success on the battlefield, Russia’s logistics professionals are stuck in the middle,” the ministry added.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin was warned he could be arrested if he attends a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) summit in South Africa in August.

Authorities in the country warned that they would be compelled to detain the president after a warrant for his arrest issued in March by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.

South Africa’s Sunday Times newspaper, citing sources in the country’s government, said that a special government commission established by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to look into the international arrest warrant concluded that the country would have no choice but to arrest Putin if he traveled to South Africa for the summit.

“We have no option not to arrest Putin,” a government official told The Sunday Times. “If he comes here, we will be forced to detain him.”

Putin was expected to travel to the summit, although the Kremlin had not confirmed his attendance, to meet with the leaders of BRICs.

The newspaper reported that officials were trying to find a way around the diplomatic dilemma, with Putin’s “virtual” attendance via videolink being mooted as a possible workaround.

The paper’s sources said that “the only option we have is for [Putin] to participate in the summit via Teams or Zoom from Moscow.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged the country’s international allies to uphold sanctions on Russia after a series of pre-dawn missile strikes over the last few days.

On Sunday, Zelenskyy said on his Telegram channel that “it is very important that Russia receives ever stronger signals that the world will not forgive any of Russia’s acts of terror. And that as many global players as possible are absolutely principled in upholding the sanctions regime against Russia.”

Zelenskyy’s comments came amid a wave of Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Early on Friday, Russian strikes hit several cities across the country, killing at least 23 people and injuring many others,

Before dawn on Sunday, Russia launched another series of missile attacks aimed at Ukrainian cities. At least 34 people, including five children, were injured as a result of an attack on Pavlohrad, near the city of Dnipro in central Ukraine. During one attack on the northern region of Chernihiv, a 14 year-old boy died.

— Holly Ellyatt

The White House on Monday estimated that Russia’s military has suffered 100,000 casualties in the last five months in fighting in the Bakhmut region and other areas of Ukraine.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters the figure, based on U.S. intelligence estimates, included more than 20,000 dead, half of them from the Wagner mercenary group, which includes convicts released from prison to join the fighting.

“Russia’s attempt at a winter offensive in the Donbas largely through Bakhmut has failed,” Kirby said.

“Last December, Russia initiated a broad offensive across multiple lines of advance, including toward Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Kreminna. Most of these efforts stalled and failed. Russia has been unable to seize any strategically significant territory.”

He said the Russians have made some incremental gains in Bakhmut but that this has come at a “terrible, terrible cost” and that Ukraine’s defenses in the region remain strong.

“Russia has exhausted its military stockpiles and its armed forces,” Kirby said.

Most of the Wagner mercenary group’s soldiers were “Russian convicts thrown into combat in Bakhmut without sufficient combat or training, combat leadership, or any sense of organizational command and control”, he said.

“It’s really stunning, these numbers,” Kirby added, saying the total is three times the number of American casualties in the Guadalcanal campaign in World War Two. Kirby said another U.S. weapons package for Ukraine would be announced soon.

— Reuters