Petronet LNG drops 5% after Q4 earnings miss estimates

Petronet LNG drops 5% after Q4 earnings miss estimates

The liquified natural gas importer reported an 18.1 percent year-on-year decline in standalone profit at Rs 614.25 crore for the March quarter, dented by weak operating numbers

Petronet LNG

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Shares of Petronet LNG slumped 4.7 percent to Rs 225.70 in the morning trade on May 4 after the liquified natural gas importer posted an 18.1 percent year-on-year decline in standalone profit at Rs 614.25 crore for the March quarter, dented by weak operating numbers.

Standalone revenue from operations came in at Rs 13,874 crore, growing 24.3 percent over the corresponding quarter of the last fiscal, the company said in a regulatory filing after market hours on May 3.

On the operating front, EBITDA fell 19.3 percent to Rs 943 crore, with margin declining 370 basis points to 6.8 percent from the year-ago period as the input cost remained high, rising 29 percent YoY.

EBITDA is earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.

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For the full year, state-owned Petronet LNG reported a 3.3 percent fall in profit at Rs 3,240 crore, while revenues grew by 39 percent to Rs 59,899 crore compared to the previous fiscal.

“The board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 3 per share for the financial year 2022-23,” the company said.

Petronet LNG shares hit its 52-week high of Rs 242.25 on May 3 in anticipation of good results. The stock has climbed over 5.5 percent this year.

Capital allocation worries

In a post-earnings note, global brokerage Jefferies said the company’s EBITDA and PAT missed estimates on lower trading gains.

However, utilisation of its Dahej terminal improved to 97 percent in April on lower natural gas prices and should benefit from a delay in GAIL’s Dabhol terminal project.

“No major new capex was announced apart from Rs 6 billion in a tank at Kochi. The company is progressing the PDHPP (petrochemicals) plant where the licensor has yet to be finalised,” it said, adding that the project would see steep capex of around Rs 14,000 crore and load the balance sheet with debt.

However, it has a “buy” call on the stock with a target price of Rs 305, implying a potential upside of nearly 35 percent.

“We project 5% EPS CAGR on 10% volume CAGR over FY23-25 as higher regas revenues are partly offset by lower trading profits. While benign valuations keep us constructive, we expect the stock to react negatively if the PDHPP capex is approved,” it added, referring to regasification revenue.

HDFC Securities, however, assigned a “reduce” rating to the stock, citing an adverse impact of high spot LNG price and rising domestic gas production on spot LNG demand in the medium term, among others.

“Volume for H1 FY24 is likely to increase as the Dabhol terminal would remain shut during the monsoons,” it added.

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