Macquarie downgrades HDFC Life, ICICI Pru, SBI Life to neutral, cuts target prices

Macquarie Research has cut target price for HDFC Life Insurance to Rs 556 from Rs 655 earlier, ICICI Prudential Life target price to Rs 486 from Rs580 and SBI Life Insurance target price to Rs 1,306 from Rs1,580 a share.

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Brokerage firm Macquarie Research has downgraded HDFC Life Insurance, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance and SBI Life Insurance to ‘neutral’ from ‘outperform’ and lowered their target prices, based on a weaker growth outlook for the insurance industry.

Macquarie Research has cut the target price for HDFC Life Insurance to Rs 556 from Rs 655 earlier, ICICI Prudential Life target price to Rs 486 from Rs 580 and SBI Life Insurance target price to Rs 1,306 from Rs1,580 a share.

The brokerage firm also revised its value of new business (VBN) estimates by 2-6 percent for FY25. Macquarie has forecast a lower compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for VNB in the range of 9-15 percent for FY23-26, compared to the previous projection of 16-22 percent for FY22-25.

Macquarie says insurance companies and the overall sector lack near-term catalysts and, unless there is a significant and meaningful increase in growth, the performance of insurance companies is expected to lag.

Insurance stocks came under pressure after the government in the budget proposed that the proceeds of insurance policies with premiums in excess of Rs 5 lakh would be taxed in the hands of the holder. The Centre made the new tax regime, which removes almost all exemptions, as the default tax regime from 2023-24 onwards.

These rules, which took effect on April 1, were seen as hurting business growth for the life insurance companies, analysts said.