Market momentum wanes heading into the final week of June after monster rally in the first half
Wall Street is preparing to close out a stronger first half to 2023 than many investors were expecting, though where markets will go from here remains up for debate. With just seven days to go until the end of the second quarter, all three major benchmarks are solidly in the green for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to eke out a more than 1% gain, while the S & P 500 has popped more than 13%. But the clear outperformer is the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , which has rallied more than 28% this year. The benchmark rode a surge in investor exuberance for artificial intelligence plays, as well as growing optimism that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its rate hiking campaign — both developments that buoyed tech names in general. However, all three major averages snapped their recent multiweek winning streak Friday. The Nasdaq notched a losing week after eight-straight weeks of gains. It’s also the S & P 500’s first weekly decline in six weeks. .IXIC mountain 2023-06-19 Nasdaq Composite this week Recent hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell put a damper on the enthusiasm, along with a larger-than-expected rate hike from the Bank of England . On top of that , some strategists are worried the stock market may be overvalued . “If October was indeed the low point in this cycle, it would mark the highest multiple for a bear-market bottom in the last 60-plus years,” Solita Marcelli, Global Wealth Management chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS, wrote in a note. “Based on current valuations, annualized returns in the mid-single digits look plausible over the next 10 years — below the long-term average annualized gain of 10% since 1960.” Against this backdrop, investors will head into the final week of June with a relatively light economic calendar. However, those few data sets could provide investors with clues on how the market will fare going into the second half. Key inflation data ahead Of note next week is the core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The report, scheduled for Friday, is expected to show the core PCE rose 0.3% in May after increasing 0.4% in the month prior, according to a Dow Jones estimate. Year over year, the inflation measure is expected to have risen 4.6%. That would still be well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, but it has eased somewhat over the last six months. “What we’re looking for is the pace of inflation to be slowing, and we think that will occur,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “So clearly, the PCE number on the 30th will be perhaps the next economic statistic du jour that could impact sentiment. But again, we’ll need more than just the PCE. We’ll need the jobs data and other key indicators in July,” Sandven added. Investors will also keep an eye on next week’s housing data that could show whether this week’s stronger-than-expected May housing starts report is a broader indicator of growing strength in the sector. “We’ll see if that’s just a one-off or if there is some momentum building,” said Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors. Reports to watch out for include Tuesday’s new home sales and Thursday’s pending home sales data, both for May. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect new home sales fell 1.2% last month. They also see flat pending home sales. For some investors, those reports could show whether the recent rally in markets has legs, or if it will run out of steam in the second half of the year. Bank of America strategist Stephen Suttmeier expects the S & P 500 could rally past 4,500 , in what he considers a fear of missing out, or “FOMO,” rally. Elsewhere, BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky warned this week the downside for tech names could be as “equally impressive” as their rally. Seasonally, at least, investors can count on an upswing on the final trading day of the quarter. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, both the Dow and the Nasdaq were higher in nine of the past 12 final trading days in June. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, thinks stocks could trade sideways as June concludes and the new month starts. “We’re gonna start to fall into that sort of shoulder season in terms of economic data where there’s not a lot that pops out that says, ‘Hey, this could move the needle for the Fed and make a difference,'” Hogan said. “We’re two weeks away from things of that nature.” Week-ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Carnival Tuesday 8:30 a.m.: Durable goods orders (May) 9 a.m.: S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (April) 10 a.m.: New home sales (May) 10 a.m.: Consumer confidence (June) Earnings: Walgreens Boots Alliance Wednesday 8:30 a.m.: Wholesale Inventories (May) Earnings: General Mills , Micron Thursday 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims (week ending June 24) 8:30 a.m.: GDP first-quarter final read 10 a.m.: Pending home sales (May) Earnings: McCormick , Paychex , Nike Friday 8:30 a.m.: Personal consumption expenditures index (May) 10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment (June final read) Earnings: Constellation Brands
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