Ukraine war live updates: Wagner forces will no longer fight in Ukraine; Prigozhin retreat deal terms could still be under discussion

Two people were killed and two more wounded in Russian shelling of a civilian refuge center in Kherson, regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin said Thursday.

“Two local people were killed and two more are in hospital in moderate condition,” Prokudin wrote, according to a Reuters translation of a note on the Telegram messaging app.

— Karen Gilchrist

New facilities have been set up at a military base housing Wagner fighters in the southeast of Belarus’ capital Minsk, satellite images captured by the European Space Agency appeared to show.

The images captured on June 27, seen and reported on by Reuters, show rows of long structures in a field which appeared empty less than two weeks prior.

The footage appears to support reports from Russian media that a new base for Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has been constructed near the town of Asipovichi, outside of Minsk.

CNBC could not immediately verify the nature of the construction.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed late on Tuesday that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus and said other mercenaries had been offered accommodation at an abandoned naval base if they wish to join him.

It comes after the Wagner group launched an aborted armed mutiny against the Russian military over the weekend.

— Karen Gilchrist

Wagner mercenaries will no longer fight in Ukraine after the group’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, refused to sign contracts with the Kremlin, the head of the Duma defense committee, Andrei Kartapolov, said Thursday.

Kartapolov said that a few days before the attempted rebellion, Russia’s ministry of defense announced that “all [groups] that perform combat missions must sign a contract” with the ministry, state-owned news agency Tass reported.

Kartapolov said Prigozhin did not sign the contracts and was informed that “Wagner would not take part in a special military operation.”

— Karen Gilchrist

NATO member states must agree on a clear route for Ukraine’s membership of the military alliance when they meet at a summit next month, Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Thursday.

“The only security guarantee that really works, and the cheapest security guarantee that really works is NATO membership,” Kallas told reporters ahead of a summit with other European Union government leaders in Brussels.

She added, however, that this can’t happen while the war is ongoing.

Speaking at the same summit earlier Thursday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that the EU still needed to decide what further security assurances it wishes to provide to Ukraine.

“This European track would be additional. We will have to discuss how far it goes, and if it would be lethal or non-lethal support. And we have to take into account that several EU countries are not a member of NATO,” Rutte said.

— Karen Gilchrist

European Union leaders meeting in Brussels Thursday will press on with plans to find a legal way to use proceeds from billions of dollars of frozen Russian assets to fund projects to help rebuild Ukraine.

“The European Council took stock of the work done regarding Russia’s immobilized assets, and invites the Council, the High Representative and the Commission to take work forward, in accordance with EU and international law, and in coordination with partners,” drafts conclusions from the summit showed.

The bloc says it has frozen more than 200 billion euros ($218.2 billion) of Russian central bank assets in reaction to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Another 30 billion euros of Russian oligarchs’ private assets have also been immobilized.

The EU is also working closely with the U.S., Canada, Britain and Japan to build an international consensus on the plans.

— Karen Gilchrist

Yevgeny Prigozhin — the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary group who was exiled to Belarus following his attempted insurrection — has been told that he will be deprived of financing if his fighters do not sign contracts with the defense ministry, the state-owned RIA news agency cited a senior lawmaker as saying on Thursday.

The chair of the lower house of parliament’s defense committee, Colonel-General Andrei Kartapolov, said Prigozhin had refused to sign the contracts and was later told that his mercenaries would no longer fight in Ukraine, state-owned TASS reported.

— Karen Gilchrist

Poland expects the European Union to help fund measures to strengthen its eastern border amid heightened security concerns following the attempted insurrection of Russia’s Wagner paramilitary troops over the weekend.

“European solidarity means supporting countries threatened with destabilization,” Deputy Foreign Minister Pawe? Jab?o?ski told public radio, according to Reuters. “These safeguards need to be increased.”

On Wednesday Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jaros?aw Kaczy?ski said the country believed that there could be around 8,000 Wagner troops already in Belarus, with which Poland shares a border.

— Karen Gilchrist

The Hungarian parliament’s house committee on Thursday rejected a proposal to schedule a vote on the ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership for next week, a lawmaker of the opposition Democratic Coalition (DK) party said.

— Karen Gilchrist

Russia’s Investigative Committee on Thursday said it has opened criminal cases against 160 “foreign mercenaries” charged with participating in hostilities in support of Ukraine, according to a Google translation of a report from Russian state news agency Tass.

Cases have been launched for the prosecution of foreigners from 33 countries, the committee said.

Russia has repeatedly accused Western powers, chiefly the United States, of fighting a proxy war against Moscow in Ukraine. The federation began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year, citing concerns that Kyiv’s potential accession to the NATO military alliance posed security risks to Moscow.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Parties in the Belarus-brokered amnesty deal between the Kremlin and paramilitary Wagner Group leader and failed insurrectionist Yevgeny Prigozhin “may still be negotiating the specifics of the agreement,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its Wednesday report.

Prigozhin’s attempted coup over the weekend culminated in his exile to Belarus, following negotiations overseen by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.

The ISW said that Russian bloggers are speculating that the Wagner rebellion is “already having widespread impacts on the Russian command structure.”

— Ruxandra Iordache

The EU risks instability if it relaxes its accession standards regarding democracy and corruption to fast track the membership bids of Ukraine and other candidate countries in light of their geopolitical circumstances, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen told the Financial Times.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested the country’s expedited accession to the European bloc after Russia’s invasion in February last year. The EU granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022, but faces challenges to strengthen its judiciary system and combat local anti-corruption.

Zelenskyy has continued to demand Ukraine’s entry into both the EU and the NATO military alliance.

The Denmark foreign ministry did not immediately respond to a CNBC request to confirm the comments to the Financial Times.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concerns that Israeli-manufactured defense systems, including the U.S. funded Iron Dome, could reach Iran, if they were transferred to Ukraine.

The repossession would be possible because of the close partnership between fellow U.S. sanctioned Russia and Iran, Netanyahu said. Moscow has used Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine, although Tehran has in the past said it did not supply Russia such weapons to use against Kyiv.

“We’re concerned also with the possibility that systems that we would give to Ukraine would fall into Iranian hands and could be reverse engineered, and we would find ourselves facing Israeli systems used against Israel,” Netanyahu told the Wall Street Journal in a televised interview.

U.S. senators Chris Van Hollen and Lindsey Graham have in recent days urged Israel to lift its veto on the transfer of the Iron Dome system to Ukraine, a joint statement said on June 23.

— Ruxandra Iordache

At least 12 people were killed and 60 were injured in a Russian missile attack that hit a restaurant in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk, the Ukrainian state emergency services said on Twitter, according to a Google translation.

The toll of the dead included three children.

Emergency rescue operations have now completed, the services said.

The U.S. State Department on Wednesday “unequivocally” condemned Russia’s targeting of civilians in its latest alleged attacks against populated Ukrainian sites.

A Kremlin spokesperson reiterated Russia’s position that Moscow does not target civilian infrastructure in response to Kyiv’s accusations regarding the strike at Kramatorsk.

CNBC could not independently verify the military progress on the ground.

— Ruxandra Iordache

The U.S. State Department condemned the latest Russian attacks on populated areas in a daily briefing, calling it another example of the country’s “continuing escalation and the sheer brutality of its war of aggression.”

At least 13 people died in multiple missile attacks in Ukraine. In the city of Kramatorsk, at least 10 were killed after a missile struck a local restaurant.

“The U.S. unequivocally condemns the targeting of civilians and offers our sincere condolences to those lost in this most recent strike in the city center,” said Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson at the State Department. “We are appalled by this, but unfortunately not surprised by Russia’s conduct.”

—Chris Eudaily

Ukraine sees an end to the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the horizon, following recent tensions between Russia’s defense officials and frontline-prominent paramilitary troop Wagner.

“I think the countdown has started,” Andriy Yermak, close adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in a Kyiv briefing, according to the BBC.

Former Putin ally Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin briefly turned arms against Moscow over the weekend, dealing an unprecedented blow to the Kremlin regime despite the militia group’s ultimate withdrawal.

Prigozhin has accepted exile into Belarus in exchange for calling off the insurrection, which unveiled the depth of cracks in Russian unity.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Switzerland on Wednesday extended its financial and travel sanctions on Russian entities and persons, following similar measures announced by the European Union on Friday.

Members of Russia’s armed forces, including recruits of the Wagner mercenary group that staged last weekend’s aborted mutiny, were among those targeted, a statement said.

The sanctions also include asset freezes and a ban on travel to and transit through Switzerland. The measures also target people and organizations that support the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.

The EU last week announced an 11th package of sanctions, which also took aim at sanctions circumvention, including through intermediary countries.

— Karen Gilchrist