Ukraine war live updates: NATO says Ukraine can join when conditions are met; Zelenskyy slams ‘absurd’ lack of timeline

Kyrylo Barashkov, a 43-year-old immigration lawyer, in his own bunker in Kriukivschina, a small town near Kyiv on July 10, 2023. After several missiles exploded near his house outside Kyiv, Kyrylo Barashkov decided the only way to keep his family safe was to build his own bunker.

— Sergei Supinsky | AFP | Getty Images

No ships have left Ukrainian ports under the Black Sea Grain Initiative in the last three days as the landmark agreement faces expiry, according to the U.N.-backed organization tracking export data.

Since the inception of the Black Sea grain deal last July, more than 32 million metric tons of foodstuffs and agricultural products have left Ukrainian ports. The agreement, which was brokered between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the United Nations, created a humanitarian sea corridor for agricultural goods.

The deal is set to expire in 6 days.

Over the weekend, one ship left Ukraine’s port of Odesa carrying 27,000 metric tons of corn destined for Tunisia.

— Amanda Macias

Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with U.S. lawmakers to discuss transferring F-16 fighter jets to Turkey as Ankara mulled Sweden’s membership to NATO, a State Department official confirmed to NBC News.

Biden’s top diplomat spoke with Democratic Senator Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, among others according to the official.

On Monday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to support Sweden’s membership into the world’s most military alliance following a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

— Amanda Macias

President Joe Biden held a bilateral meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan while the two attend the NATO leaders summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The meeting, which was agreed to over the weekend during a nearly one-hour phone call, comes on the heels of Erdogan’s decision to support Sweden’s application to join NATO.

“I want to thank you for your diplomacy and your courage to take that on. And I want to thank you for your leadership,” Biden said seated next to Erdogan.

The Turkish leader thanked Biden and wished him luck in the upcoming presidential election.

— Amanda Macias

Kaja Kallas, PM of Estonia, speaks to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Krišjānis Kariņš, PM of Latvia, speaks to CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

NATO leaders agreed at their summit Tuesday that Ukraine will be an extended an invitation into the military alliance. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg laid out the compromises that the NATO allies have come to on Ukraine.

“We will issue an invitation for Ukraine to join NATO when allies agree and conditions are met,” he said according to NBC News.

The full written declaration can be found here.

-Matt Clinch

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday insisted that the future of Ukraine is in NATO but said swift accession negotiations can only take place when the war is over.

“The future of Ukraine is in NATO, there is no doubt about it,” Pistorius said at the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

“All of the other issues have to be talked about when the war is over. You can’t really negotiate about the … membership of Ukraine in NATO while the war is going on. You have to wait for this moment and then we have to do it quickly, of course.”

Asked by CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick to clarify whether Germany wants to see Ukraine as a NATO member, Pistorius replied, “We always emphasize that … It is my point of view, yes.”

— Sam Meredith

Russia’s current account surplus — the level at which a country has more exports than imports — tanked 85% to $20.2 billion in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year, the country’s central bank said.

The bulk of the fall came from a drop in oil and gas revenues as Western sanctions took hold and prices for Urals crude fell. Russia’s current account surplus actually hit a historic peak in 2022 as imports fell due to sanctions, while oil and gas sales — and energy commodity prices — were high.

— Natasha Turak

Russia launched drone attacks on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv overnight, as well as on the Black Sea port city of Odesa and southeastern Kherson. Air alerts sounded across the country.

The strikes came just ahead of a key NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania on Tuesday during which the alliance is set to establish a new defense strategy and usher in a new member, Sweden. Two people were reported injured and one dead in Ukraine’s southeast, local authorities said, while no deaths were reported in Kyiv or Odesa.

“The enemy attacked Kyiv from the air for the second time this month,” the head of Kyiv’s military administration Serhiy Popko wrote on Telegram, according to a Google translation. Ukraine’s air force said the drones were Iranian-made Shaheds, and that 28 were launched but 26 were shot down. NBC could not independently verify the information.

— Natasha Turak

NATO members are supposed to spend a minimum of 2% of their GDP on defense — but many don’t.

The prime ministers of Spain, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and the president of Poland, discuss their spending plans with CNBC.

— Katrina Bishop

Turkey will not hurt its relations with Russia, even as it forges stronger ties with its Western allies, Reuters cited a senior Turkish official as saying.

Turkey relieved NATO allies this week, as it lifted its 14-month long opposition to Sweden joining the alliance, enabling the expansion of the defense organization that Russia says is a root cause of its invasion of Ukraine.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan used his country’s leverage as a NATO member to extract concessions from other states, including the formation of a European Union reform group to revive a path for Turkey to join the EU — a process that saw tumultuous starts and stops, ultimately meeting failure over previous decades.

Turkey refused to partake in Western sanctions on Russia, and its trade with Moscow ballooned in the last year as a result.

— Natasha Turak

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Tuesday said it is “unprecedented and absurd” that there is no timeframe for the invitation of membership of his country into the NATO military alliance.

“It looks like there is no readiness either to invite Ukraine to NATO or to make it a member of the Alliance,” he said on Telegram, according to a Google translation. “For Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.”

Zelenskyy will be attending the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the group’s secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said earlier in the day. The NATO chief stressed that Ukraine would receive a “strong, positive message on the path forward” regarding its membership.

Kyiv has been stalwartly pushing for accession into NATO following Russia’s full-scale invasion, but officials of the security alliance have previously said its membership is unlikely to proceed while war is waged on Ukrainian territories.

— Ruxandra Iordache

Europeans “don’t seem to understand” that moving NATO infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders is a “mistake,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in Reuters-reported comments on Tuesday, as NATO holds a major summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Peskov told a press briefing that NATO’s eastward expansion in Europe was what fomented the war in Ukraine to begin with. Western nations hold that Ukraine and other eastern European states reserve the sovereign right to join whatever alliance they choose, and that Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor in February 2022 was an unprompted act of aggression.

Peskov added that Sweden’s now impending entry into NATO has negative implications for Russian national security. He said the Kremlin will be making “deep analysis” of the statements made at the NATO summit and will take necessary measures to ensure Russia’s security.

— Natasha Turak

The security situation in eastern Europe and particularly the Baltics has deteriorated since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but even more so of late, the leader of Lithuania said.

“The security situation in our region is deteriorating. It’s not improving, it’s even not stable,” Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick at the NATO summit in Vilnius.

“We see additional capabilities sent to Kaliningrad region. Belarus as a close ally of Russia is playing a more and more important role. So we have to be aware that we have to take the decisions to strengthen all of the eastern flank,” he said.

Kaliningrad is a Russian exclave within Lithuania. Nauseda called for a more unified defense approach among NATO members and greater integration of defense systems between Nordic and Baltic countries.

His comments followed news of the apparent relocation of Wagner group forces, the Russian private mercenary group, to Belarus following a mysterious failed mutiny in late June.

— Natasha Turak

Nordic states in NATO are a threat to no one and have united behind the alliance for common defense and deterrence purposes, Norway’s prime minister told CNBC.

For the first time in history, all of the Nordics will now be in NATO, creating — along with the Baltic states and Germany — what some are dubbing a “NATO lake” in northern Europe. This follows the recent development of Turkey agreeing to admit Sweden into the alliance, after more than a year of opposition.

Asked if this could draw retribution from Russia, Norwegian leader Jonas Gahr Store said, “Think about it this way; we are all members of NATO, but we don’t change as nations. We are a threat to none. We want peace and stability in our region.”

“The threat has come from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine,” the prime minister added. “That led Finland and Sweden to make historic decisions to join NATO … but we will still be Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Denmark from the Nordic perspective. We will be contributing to peace, stability and cooperation, but there also has to be solid defense and deterrence, and that has been as a result of Russia’s aggression, that is a fact.”

— Natasha Turak

Russia’s war in Ukraine has proven counterproductive to President Vladimir Putin’s goals of reining in the enlargement of the NATO military alliance, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Tuesday.

“[Putin] went to war because he wanted less NATO. He’s getting more NATO,” Stoltenberg said ahead of the start of the U.S.-led coalition’s summit in Vilnius, Lithuania. “Moscow, President Putin, does not have a veto on NATO enlargement.”

The Kremlin cited national security risks from Kyiv’s ambitions to enter the NATO alliance, before launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. Since then, Ukraine has doubled down on its intentions to join both NATO and the EU, while Finland has been accepted as a member. On Monday, Turkey finally endorsed Sweden’s membership bid.

— Ruxandra Iordache

NATO will send a “clear, positive message” on the path forward for Ukraine and its potential membership to the western defense alliance, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick during the Vilnius summit Tuesday.

When asked whether Ukraine could rely on any concrete guarantees of security, the NATO chief replied, “The most imminent task is that Ukraine remains a sovereign independent nation in Ukraine.”

“On the membership,” he added, “we will send a clear, positive message on the path forward. Text on communique will be made public within hours. I expect that allies will agree that is clear on the need to move Ukraine closer to NATO.”

Kyiv has been pushing for NATO membership since well before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Joining the alliance is now more important than ever to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his government as they seek to project more strength in repelling Russia’s invasion, but many NATO leaders fear pulling the organization’s members into a war with Russia.

— Natasha Turak

Kyiv’s ties to NATO have deepened since a 2008 summit in which it was agreed that Georgia and Ukraine would join the U.S.-led military alliance, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday at a coalition summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

“Ukraine has come a long way since we made that decision in 2008 that the next step will be a membership action plan,” he said.

“Ukraine is much closer to NATO, so I think the time has come to reflect that in also the NATO decisions. So, all put together, including that we made clear that Ukraine will become a member, we moved the membership action plan, we make their forces interoperable NATO forces, we establish the NATO-Ukraine council, all that together will send a very strong and positive message from NATO to Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s prospective NATO accession will be one of the key discussion points of the Vilnius summit, which has already seen Turkey finally endorse Sweden’s membership bid.

Russian forces carried out a drone strike against Kyiv early Tuesday, Serhiy Popko, head of the Kyiv military administration, said on Telegram, according to a Google translation.

Moscow deployed Iranian-made Shahed drones, which were destroyed before they could hit their targets. This was the Kremlin’s second air offensive against the Ukrainian capital this month, Popko said.

“Tonight, our region suffered another attack by the Russians. This time the enemy used drones. The air alert lasted almost two hours,” Kyiv regional military head Ruslan Kravchenko said on Telegram, according to a Google translation. “All enemy targets were shot down by air defense forces. No hits were recorded. There are no victims.”

CNBC could not independently verify developments on the ground.

— Ruxandra Iordache

The U.S. and some other NATO member states are not willing to allow Ukraine to join the alliance right now, despite Kyiv’s repeated calls to join and insistence that its membership should be approved during this week’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

“In terms of Ukraine itself, President Biden, the Germans, and others, the French, are not willing to give Ukraine membership right now,” Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told CNBC. 

“President Biden said after the war is over Ukraine will get the membership,” he said. “The big question of course is if all of the territory of Ukraine is not liberated, what about that? Does that commit NATO to a war against Russia to liberate the Ukrainian territory? Probably not.”

The primary concern among the United States, France and Germany is the role of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which stipulates that all members must defend any member state that is attacked by a non-NATO state. As a result of that, NATO does not accept new member states that are currently at war or have land occupied by an adversarial power.

“The majority of the alliance stands firmly with us,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video message Monday.

“When we applied for membership of NATO, we spoke frankly: de facto, Ukraine is already in the alliance,” he said. “Our weapons are the weapons of the alliance. Our values are what the alliance believes in … Vilnius must confirm all this.”

— Natasha Turak

Ukraine said in the past week Russian forces launched 39 missiles and 334 air strikes across Ukraine, Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Maliar said on the Telegram platform.

Meanwhile, Maliar said that Ukrainian forces carried out more than 79 strikes on Russian positions and on 11 ammunition depots. Ukraine also destroyed 24 Russian anti-aircraft missile systems and nearly 40 Iranian-made Shahed precision-attack suicide drones.

— Amanda Macias

President Joe Biden hailed Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decision to ratify Sweden’s ascension protocols, bringing the Nordic country one step closer to NATO membership.

“I stand ready to work with President Erdogan and Türkiye on enhancing defense and deterrence in the Euro-Atlantic area,” Biden wrote in a statement.

“I look forward to welcoming Prime Minister [Ulf] Kristersson and Sweden as our 32nd NATO ally. And I thank Secretary General Stoltenberg for his steadfast leadership,” Biden added.

Last May, Sweden and Finland began the formal process of applying to NATO. All 30 members of the alliance have to ratify the countries’ entry into the world’s most powerful military alliance.

Last August, Biden signed ratification documents to bring Finland and Sweden into NATO. In April, Finland joined the alliance as its 31st member.

— Amanda Macias

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson agreed to move forward with Sweden’s ascension to the NATO alliance.

“This is an historic step which makes all NATO allies stronger and safer,” Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter.

Sweden formally applied for NATO membership a year ago alongside its Nordic neighbor, Finland.

Both Finland and Sweden already meet many of the requirements to be NATO allies. Some of the requirements include having a functioning democratic political system, a willingness to provide economic transparency and the ability to make military contributions to NATO missions.

Despite some initial sticking points with Turkey, Finland joined the military alliance in April.

— Amanda Macias