Adani Ports falls ahead of Q1 results; analysts expect sharp jump in revenue led by acquisitions

Kotak said underlying comparable volume growth is driven by very strong growth in container volumes which are likely up 19 percent YoY.

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Shares of Adani Ports traded lower on August 8 ahead of its June quarter earnings announcement later in the day. Analysts expect the company to deliver an average low-20s revenue growth for the quarter led by additional revenues from newly acquired assets while adjusted profit is expected to take a hit.

“We model 19 percent YoY improvement in revenue,” said Kotak Institutional Equities in a note. The revenue will be driven by a combination of organic volume growth, which will be in low-double digit, realisation growth, which is in mid-single-digit and a boost from Haifa port and logistics business (2-3 percent).

Kotak said underlying comparable volume growth is driven by very strong growth in container volumes which are likely up 19 percent YoY.

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Earlier in the year, Adani Ports paid $1.2 billion to acquire Haifa ports in Israel. The Port of Haifa is the second largest port in Israel in terms of shipping containers and the biggest in shipping tourist cruise ships.

Phillip Capital said there will be acquisition impact on YoY numbers, which expects revenue to grow 14 percent and net profit to jump 22 percent. It also expects margin impact due to revenue mix, and international operations.

The broker is also assuming forex loss of Rs 380 crore in Q1FY24 against the loss of Rs 1160 crore in 1QFY23 and the effective tax rate of +21 percent in 1QFY24 vs -7 percent in 1QFY23, which will have an impact on bottomline.

Kotak predicts a YoY growth in EBITDA in the low double digits. This is based on the assumption that there will be a rise in the share of lower margin businesses like Haifa port and logistics.

Incred Equities has one of the most bullish views on Q1 numbers, It expects revenue to grow 34 percent YoY and adjusted net profit to decline 9 percent. “We expect EBITDA (excluding SEZ income) to rise 18 percent YoY, a tad higher than the 12 percent YoY volume growth,” it said.

The stock traded down 1.29 percent to Rs 781 on BSE as of 10.20 am.

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