BSE Metal Index reaches 17-month high on Chinese policies and domestic price hikes

BSE Metal index touched a high of 23284 points on September 4, surging nearly 3.5 percent intraday. Since the last 11 sessions, the index advanced over 10 percent

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The BSE Metal index has surged in nine out of its last 11 trading sessions, reaching a nearly 17-month high. This uptrend is attributed to growing investor confidence following policy initiatives by China and price increases implemented by domestic companies.

BSE Metal index touched a high of 23,284 points on September 4, surging nearly 3.5 percent intraday. Since the last 11 sessions, the index advanced over 10 percent while India’s benchmark Sensex and Nifty rose little over 1 percent.

Recent measures by Chinese authorities to bolster the property sector include reduced mortgage rates and lower down-payment requirements for new and second-time homebuyers. Existing borrowers can also renegotiate interest rates on first-home mortgages. Additionally, Country Garden, a major real estate developer, secured a debt extension of CNY 3.9 billion ($540 million), providing relief to the sector by allowing repayment over three years instead of the original September 2023 deadline.

Under the new stimulus measures, existing borrowers can renegotiate interest rates on mortgages for their first homes; the down-payment requirements for first-time homebuyers will be reduced to no lower than 20 percent; and the down-payment requirements for a second home will be cut to no lower than 30 percent.

“However, unlike the past when the property sector came to rescue the economy, we believe this stimulus will have limited upside in the long run due to muted demand from first-time buyers, no increase in income, record youth unemployment and an aging population,” Motilal Oswal said in its latest note.

Nonetheless, within the local market, demand remains strong, prompting steel mills to implement several price increases since August 2023. Steel prices, previously under pressure due to global price fluctuations and monsoon-related disruptions, appear to have reached their lowest point and are now showing a gradual upward trend.

“The domestic demand outlook remains robust and the recent price hikes would support margins in 2H FY24 and offset the recent increase in coking coal prices. We have a BUY rating on Jindal Steel & Power Ltd in the ferrous space. We believe demand for long steel will remain strong as several infra projects see a pickup in execution,” the Motilal Oswal report added.