Asia markets poised for mixed open as investors look to inflation data across the region

The Dollar Index remained positive this morning after spiking to a high of $105.78, its highest level since March 8. For the week, the DXY is up 0.14%, on pace for its 10th weekly gain in a row.

— Yun Li, Nick Wells

A tough August and September can give way to a strong October for stocks, historical data shows.

The S&P 500 is on track to end September nearly 4% lower, extending losses after dropping 1.8% in August. But after the index has ended at least 1% lower in both August and September, it has finished October up nine of the past 10 times, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.

And the past three instances show sizable legs up. In 2022, October brought an 8% rally following the sides in the two prior months. October 2015 saw an 8.3% climb, while the index jumped 10.8% in October 2011.

“As bad as things feel, don’t lose faith just yet,” Detrick wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

— Alex Harring

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that more data is still needed to determine whether the central bank needs to further tighten monetary policy.

“The thing that would be a problem is if we decided that we wanted to call it done we’d say we’re done, we say definitely one more, when we actually don’t know,” Daly said in an event. “Patience is a prudent strategy.”

— Fred Imbert

The latest surge in oil prices may have a lot further to run, according to JPMorgan.

Analyst Christyan Malek upgraded the entire global energy sector to an overweight rating in a research note on Friday, saying that an energy “supercycle” could eventually drive up Brent crude prices as high as $150 a barrel.

Read more on JPMorgan’s outlook for the oil industry here.

— Samantha Subin

The U.S. and Eurozone central banks are very close to being done with their hiking cycles, according to Citi, amid a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and a weaker European economy. The bank has lowered its GDP outlook for the Eurozone accordingly.

“From a central bank cycle point of view, duration is attractive as rate hiking cycles are coming to a quick end. Valuation is also interesting, especially in the US,” analyst Dirk Willer said in a Thursday note.

“However, central banks have not been given the all clear yet, as either growth is still surprisingly strong (the US), or inflation surprisingly stubborn (EU, UK). And quickly rising oil prices are typically a strong headwind for duration,” he added.

The analyst remains long on the “cheap cyclical” Latin American market, while shorting the defensive U.K. market, which he believes should benefit from a weaker Pound.

— Hakyung Kim