Jefferies sees $7-10 bn revenue opportunity for JioAirFiber

Jefferies sees -10 bn revenue opportunity for JioAirFiber

The brokerage house raised its consolidated EBITDA estimates by 1-2 percent and increased target price of Reliance Industries Ltd by 27 percent to Rs 2975 a share

Currently, India has 35 million broadband households and 120 million pay-TV households out of a total of 319 million households.

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Jefferies India has projected a significant revenue potential of $7-10 billion for JioAirFiber. This estimation is based on the prospect of promoting broadband adoption, particularly among the 85 million Pay-TV households that currently lack internet access, considering 100 million subscribers with a monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) of Rs 500-700.

“We see Jio as well positioned to scale its fixed wireless access offering to 35m homes by Mar-26 given its hefty network investments, SA 5G setup which enables it to offer dedicated speeds, and investments in unlicensed band radio,” Jefferies India said in its latest note.

The brokerage house raised its consolidated EBITDA estimates by 1-2 percent and increased target price of Reliance Industries Ltd by 27 percent to Rs 2,975 a share. It maintained its buy rating on RIL.

Currently, India has 35 million broadband households and 120 million pay-TV households out of a total of 319 million households.

Jefferies said Jio’s access to 30 million affluent homes positions it as a key player in India’s $4 billion TV ad-market by understanding content viewership patterns. There’s also potential for additional revenue through cloud PC and gaming, home networking, and security solutions.

“We raise our homes subscriber estimates 12-22% and expect 35m homes for Jio by Mar-26 and a 4x jump in home broadband revenues to $2.3bn in FY26. We raise our revenue/Ebitda estimates for Jio 1-4 percent (consol Ebitda 1-2 percent) and expect Jio to deliver 17/20 percent CAGR in rev/Ebitda over FY23-26E. Capital intensity should come down in Jio and Retail FY25E onwards”, Jefferies India report added.

Jio recently introduced JioAirFiber, a Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) service, in 8 major Indian cities. JioAirFiber offers home entertainment solutions with packages including content from 550+ TV channels and 14+ OTT apps across all plans, eliminating options that offer only internet connectivity.

JioAirFiber provides speeds from 30-1000Mbps, matching its FTTH service. Jio’s standalone (SA) 5G network enables efficient network slicing, ensuring dedicated speeds for FWA customers. Checks indicate Jio can serve 400 million 5G mobile subscribers and 20 million FWA homes. The acquisition of Mimosa Networks enhances FWA capacity using unlicensed band radio.

In a bull case scenario, Jefferies expect price target of Rs 3,200 a share, up 32 percent amid expected recovery in GRMs/petchem margins, faster consolidation in the telecom sector leading to tariff increases for Jio, the potential public listing of Jio, leading to a re-rating of valuation, faster market share gains by Reliance Retail and Jiomart’s GMV surpassing expectations.

Disclaimer: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

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