Ukraine war live updates: Putin claims Ukraine’s seeing ‘huge losses’ in troubled counteroffensive; Kyiv says it ‘cannot be conquered’

Vladimir Putin aims to strike a “fragile equilibrium” in Russia’s response to the unfolding turmoil in the Middle East, wanting to appear supportive of Israel without being critical of Iran-backed militant group Hamas.

Russia has tried to tread a fine diplomatic line in the Israeli-Hamas conflict, being one of the few countries to have good relations with Israel and Hamas-backer Iran, as well as other surrounding Middle Eastern countries. One analyst said that the position that Putin is taking in the war is essentially an anti-U.S. one.

“Despite the aggressive stance adopted by state controlled TV in Russia (which boosts anti-American narratives over anti-Israeli ones), Putin is more nuanced,” Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of analysis firm R.Politik, said Sunday.

“His own rhetoric suggests that he is willing to condemn Hamas’ attack but not to the extent that it jeopardises bilateral relations, maintaining Moscow’s bilateral diplomatic channels — a prerequisite for Russia to take a mediating role,” she noted.

“However, preserving this equilibrium — in part, to keep open communication with Israel — is becoming increasingly difficult for Moscow,” Stanovaya said, adding that, ultimately, the essence of Putin’s position is an anti-Western one, rather than simply being pro-Palestinian or “not pro-Israeli.”

“Ultimately, the essence of Putin’s decision is anti-American … This sentiment shapes his opinions towards Hamas, Israel’s actions and the broader conflict,” she noted.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will visit North Korea later this week, the ministry said Monday.

Lavrov will visit the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from Oct. 18-19 at the invitation of Pyongyang’s Foreign Ministry, a statement said.

The visit comes as Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin are in China Monday for talks, and as the Belt and Road Forum takes place in Beijing.

Lavrov’s visit to North Korea after the trip to China comes amid deepening ties with Pyongyang. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited Russia in early September in a rare trip abroad.

Kim and Putin hailed closer military, economic and geopolitical cooperation, while Western officials feared talks were actually focusing on possible North Korean weapons deliveries for Russia. Both countries denied the accusations. Following the trip, North Korea invited Lavrov and Putin to visit.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country cannot be conquered after his rival counterpart in Russia claimed Kyiv is suffering “huge losses” in its counteroffensive.

“Ukraine cannot be conquered because our people cannot be conquered,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly address.

“Every day, our cities and villages in the border regions with Russia and along the front line are subjected to terrorist attacks by the occupier … No matter what happens, Ukrainians take care of each other, and the state remains functional,” he said.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said on Facebook Monday that “the Ukrainian defense forces continue to defend in the east and the south of Ukraine, conduct the offensive on Melitopol axis, and offensive operations on Bakhmut axis. As they destroy the enemy, they liberate the temporarily occupied territories and consolidate new positions.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed in an interview published Monday that Ukraine was suffering “huge losses” and making little progress in its counteroffensive.

Meanwhile, Russian forces were, he said, conducting an “active defense” and improving their position along almost the whole front line, he claimed, including in the Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia and Avdiivka areas, the latter being a war hot spot with Russian forces trying to seize the city.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that “Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast [region] … Putin’s characterization of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka as an “active defense,” instead of “active combat operations” … may be an attempt to temper expectations of significant Russian advances.”

The ISW noted that “Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and material.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Ukraine’s losses are eight times higher than those of Russia during an interview with Chinese media, stating that Kyiv’s counteroffensive has been unsuccessful.

“Since June 4, it [Ukraine’s counteroffensive began] has been continuing. So far there are no results, there are only huge losses,” for Ukraine, Putin said in an interview with the China Media Group, according to comments published by Russian news agency Tass on Monday.

“The losses are simply huge – approximately one to eight as a ratio,” Putin said.

Putin said Russian troops are conducting an “active defense” and improving their position along almost the whole of the front line, including in the Kupiansk, Zaporizhzhia and Avdiivka areas, the latter being a hot spot in fighting in recent weeks.

CNBC was unable to verify the claims and Ukraine has not commented. Analysts agree, and Ukraine concedes, that its counteroffensive has not made as much progress as expected or hoped, but Ukrainian forces have managed to break through deep layers of Russian defenses in places and have retaken some territory. The war remains, in many places, an attritional conflict with high losses on both sides, however.

Putin is visiting Beijing this week to participate in the Belt and Road Forum that begins Tuesday, and Sino-Russian talks. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is also attending.

The trip comes just days after Putin visited Kyrgyzstan in his first trip abroad this year, and first since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin, alleging responsibility for the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer of children during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

— Holly Ellyatt