Stay with megacaps as 2024 ushers in uncertainties: Kotak note

Kotak notes the market’s anticipation of a shift in US policy rates post the Fed’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance. Hopes for rate cuts due to soft economic data and lower inflation might affect earnings and growth expectations negatively.

‘);
$(‘#lastUpdated_’+articleId).text(resData[stkKey][‘lastupdate’]);

//if(resData[stkKey][‘percentchange’] > 0){
// $(‘#greentxt_’+articleId).removeClass(“redtxt”).addClass(“greentxt”);
// $(‘.arw_red’).removeClass(“arw_red”).addClass(“arw_green”);
//}else if(resData[stkKey][‘percentchange’] < 0){
// $(‘#greentxt_’+articleId).removeClass(“greentxt”).addClass(“redtxt”);
// $(‘.arw_green’).removeClass(“arw_green”).addClass(“arw_red”);
//}
if(resData[stkKey][‘percentchange’] >= 0){
$(‘#greentxt_’+articleId).removeClass(“redtxt”).addClass(“greentxt”);
//$(‘.arw_red’).removeClass(“arw_red”).addClass(“arw_green”);
$(‘#gainlosstxt_’+articleId).find(“.arw_red”).removeClass(“arw_red”).addClass(“arw_green”);
}else if(resData[stkKey][‘percentchange’] < 0){
$(‘#greentxt_’+articleId).removeClass(“greentxt”).addClass(“redtxt”);
//$(‘.arw_green’).removeClass(“arw_green”).addClass(“arw_red”);
$(‘#gainlosstxt_’+articleId).find(‘.arw_green’).removeClass(“arw_green”).addClass(“arw_red”);
}

$(‘#volumetxt_’+articleId).show();
$(‘#vlmtxt_’+articleId).show();
$(‘#stkvol_’+articleId).text(resData[stkKey][‘volume’]);
$(‘#td-low_’+articleId).text(resData[stkKey][‘daylow’]);
$(‘#td-high_’+articleId).text(resData[stkKey][‘dayhigh’]);
$(‘#rightcol_’+articleId).show();
}else{
$(‘#volumetxt_’+articleId).hide();
$(‘#vlmtxt_’+articleId).hide();
$(‘#stkvol_’+articleId).text(”);
$(‘#td-low_’+articleId).text(”);
$(‘#td-high_’+articleId).text(”);
$(‘#rightcol_’+articleId).hide();
}
$(‘#stk-graph_’+articleId).attr(‘src’,’//appfeeds.moneycontrol.com/jsonapi/stocks/graph&format=json&watch_app=true&range=1d&type=area&ex=’+stockType+’&sc_id=’+stockId+’&width=157&height=100&source=web’);
}
}
}
});
}

$(‘.bseliveselectbox’).click(function(){
$(‘.bselivelist’).show();
});

function bindClicksForDropdown(articleId){
$(‘ul#stockwidgettabs_’+articleId+’ li’).click(function(){
stkId = jQuery.trim($(this).find(‘a’).attr(‘stkid’));

$(‘ul#stockwidgettabs_’+articleId+’ li’).find(‘a’).removeClass(‘active’);
$(this).find(‘a’).addClass(‘active’);
stockWidget(‘N’,stkId,articleId);
});
$(‘#stk-b-‘+articleId).click(function(){
stkId = jQuery.trim($(this).attr(‘stkId’));
stockWidget(‘B’,stkId,articleId);
$(‘.bselivelist’).hide();
});
$(‘#stk-n-‘+articleId).click(function(){
stkId = jQuery.trim($(this).attr(‘stkId’));
stockWidget(‘N’,stkId,articleId);
$(‘.bselivelist’).hide();
});
}

$(“.bselivelist”).focusout(function(){
$(“.bselivelist”).hide(); //hide the results
});

function bindMenuClicks(articleId){

$(‘#watchlist-‘+articleId).click(function(){
var stkId = $(this).attr(‘stkId’);
overlayPopupWatchlist(0,2,1,stkId);
});
$(‘#portfolio-‘+articleId).click(function(){
var dispId = $(this).attr(‘dispId’);
pcSavePort(0,1,dispId);
});
}

$(‘.mc-modal-close’).on(‘click’,function(){
$(‘.mc-modal-wrap’).css(‘display’,’none’);
$(‘.mc-modal’).removeClass(‘success’);
$(‘.mc-modal’).removeClass(‘error’);
});
function overlayPopupWatchlist(e, t, n,stkId) {
$(‘.srch_bx’).css(‘z-index’,’999′);
typparam1 = n;
if(readCookie(‘nnmc’))
{
var lastRsrs =new Array();
lastRsrs[e]= stkId;
if(lastRsrs.length > 0)
{
var resStr=”;
let secglbVar = 1;
var url = ‘//www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/common/saveWatchlist.php’;
$.get( “//www.moneycontrol.com/mccode/common/rhsdata.html”, function( data ) {
$(‘#backInner1_rhsPop’).html(data);
$.ajax({url:url,
type:”POST”,
dataType:”json”,
data:{q_f:typparam1,wSec:secglbVar,wArray:lastRsrs},
success:function(d)
{
if(typparam1==’1′) // rhs
{
var appndStr=”;
//var newappndStr = makeMiddleRDivNew(d);
//appndStr = newappndStr[0];
var titStr=”;var editw=”;
var typevar=”;
var pparr= new Array(‘Monitoring your investments regularly is important.’,’Add your transaction details to monitor your stock`s performance.’,’You can also track your Transaction History and Capital Gains.’);
var phead =’Why add to Portfolio?’;
if(secglbVar ==1)
{
var stkdtxt=’this stock’;
var fltxt=’ it ‘;
typevar =’Stock ‘;
if(lastRsrs.length>1){
stkdtxt=’these stocks’;
typevar =’Stocks ‘;fltxt=’ them ‘;
}

}

//var popretStr =lvPOPRHS(phead,pparr);
//$(‘#poprhsAdd’).html(popretStr);
//$(‘.btmbgnwr’).show();
var tickTxt =’‘;
if(typparam1==1)
{
var modalContent = ‘Watchlist has been updated successfully.’;
var modalStatus = ‘success’; //if error, use ‘error’

$(‘.mc-modal-content’).text(modalContent);
$(‘.mc-modal-wrap’).css(‘display’,’flex’);
$(‘.mc-modal’).addClass(modalStatus);

//var existsFlag=$.inArray(‘added’,newappndStr[1]);
//$(‘#toptitleTXT’).html(tickTxt+typevar+’ to your watchlist’);
//if(existsFlag == -1)
//{
// if(lastRsrs.length > 1)
// $(‘#toptitleTXT’).html(tickTxt+typevar+’already exist in your watchlist’);
// else
// $(‘#toptitleTXT’).html(tickTxt+typevar+’already exists in your watchlist’);
//
//}
}

//$(‘.accdiv’).html(”);
//$(‘.accdiv’).html(appndStr);
}
},
//complete:function(d){
// if(typparam1==1)
// {
// watchlist_popup(‘open’);
// }
//}
});
});
}
else
{
var disNam =’stock’;
if($(‘#impact_option’).html()==’STOCKS’)
disNam =’stock’;
if($(‘#impact_option’).html()==’MUTUAL FUNDS’)
disNam =’mutual fund’;
if($(‘#impact_option’).html()==’COMMODITIES’)
disNam =’commodity’;

alert(‘Please select at least one ‘+disNam);
}
}
else
{
AFTERLOGINCALLBACK = ‘overlayPopup(‘+e+’, ‘+t+’, ‘+n+’)’;
commonPopRHS();
/*work_div = 1;
typparam = t;
typparam1 = n;
check_login_pop(1)*/
}
}

function pcSavePort(param,call_pg,dispId)
{
var adtxt=”;
if(readCookie(‘nnmc’)){
if(call_pg == “2”)
{
pass_sec = 2;
}
else
{
pass_sec = 1;
}
var postfolio_url = ‘https://www.moneycontrol.com/portfolio_new/add_stocks_multi.php?id=’+dispId;
window.open(postfolio_url, ‘_blank’);
} else
{
AFTERLOGINCALLBACK = ‘pcSavePort(‘+param+’, ‘+call_pg+’, ‘+dispId+’)’;
commonPopRHS();
/*work_div = 1;
typparam = t;
typparam1 = n;
check_login_pop(1)*/
}

}

function commonPopRHS(e) {
/*var t = ($(window).height() – $(“#” + e).height()) / 2 + $(window).scrollTop();
var n = ($(window).width() – $(“#” + e).width()) / 2 + $(window).scrollLeft();
$(“#” + e).css({
position: “absolute”,
top: t,
left: n
});
$(“#lightbox_cb,#” + e).fadeIn(300);
$(“#lightbox_cb”).remove();
$(“body”).append(”);
$(“#lightbox_cb”).css({
filter: “alpha(opacity=80)”
}).fadeIn()*/

$(“.linkSignUp”).click();
}

function overlay(n)
{
document.getElementById(‘back’).style.width = document.body.clientWidth + “px”;
document.getElementById(‘back’).style.height = document.body.clientHeight +”px”;
document.getElementById(‘back’).style.display = ‘block’;
jQuery.fn.center = function () {
this.css(“position”,”absolute”);
var topPos = ($(window).height() – this.height() ) / 2;
this.css(“top”, -topPos).show().animate({‘top’:topPos},300);
this.css(“left”, ( $(window).width() – this.width() ) / 2);
return this;
}
setTimeout(function(){$(‘#backInner’+n).center()},100);

}
function closeoverlay(n){
document.getElementById(‘back’).style.display = ‘none’;
document.getElementById(‘backInner’+n).style.display = ‘none’;
}
stk_str=”;
stk.forEach(function (stkData,index){
if(index==0){
stk_str+=stkData.stockId.trim();
}else{
stk_str+=’,’+stkData.stockId.trim();
}
});

$.get(‘//www.moneycontrol.com/techmvc/mc_apis/stock_details/?classic=true&sc_id=’+stk_str, function(data) {
stk.forEach(function (stkData,index){
$(‘#stock-name-‘+stkData.stockId.trim()+’-‘+article_id).text(data[stkData.stockId.trim()][‘nse’][‘shortname’]);
});
});

function redirectToTradeOpenDematAccountOnline(){
if (stock_isinid && stock_tradeType) {
window.open(`https://www.moneycontrol.com/open-demat-account-online?classic=true&script_id=${stock_isinid}&ex=${stock_tradeType}&site=web&asset_class=stock&utm_source=moneycontrol&utm_medium=articlepage&utm_campaign=tradenow&utm_content=webbutton`, ‘_blank’);
}
}

Kotak Institutional Equities favours mega-caps for their reasonable valuations and resilience against uncertainties. They foresee global and Indian markets being influenced by factors such as interest rates in developed economies in early 2024. India may experience a consumption rebound, but disruptions in sectors like automobiles and paints are possible. Additionally, key elections are ahead.

They categorise Indian markets into three segments: mega-caps in a bear market, large-caps and high-quality mid-caps in a bull market despite short-term weaknesses, and low-quality mid-caps and small-caps in a bubble market due to unrealistic expectations.

In the past one and two years, large caps have shown minimal returns. Reliance Industries lost 0.1 percent in one year and gained 3 percent in two years. TCS gained 2.7 percent in one year but lost 3.1 percent in two years. HDFC Bank declined by 7.6 percent in one year and 2.5 percent in two years. Infosys saw a 12 percent drop in one year and a 21 percent decline in two years. Bajaj Finance rose by only 5 percent in one year but fell by 4 percent in two years.

Kotak notes the market’s anticipation of a shift in US policy rates post the Fed’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance. Hopes for rate cuts due to soft economic data and lower inflation might affect earnings and growth expectations negatively.

They expect a slow recovery in consumption demand over 2-3 quarters, acknowledging potential disruptions that could affect valuations. The current high valuations in consumption sectors overlook possible business model disruptions.

The market faces significant Indian elections but doesn’t expect negative surprises, assuming continuity in the central government’s policies. However, Kotak points out that state election outcomes may not correlate with general elections, it added.

Disclosure: Moneycontrol is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.