Goldman says ‘shine is returning’ for gold as investors ramp up bets on rate cuts

Gold prices on Monday rose to a more than six-month high as the U.S. dollar weakened and investors firmed up bets that the Federal Reserve is done with interest rate hikes.

Spot gold was up 0.52% at $2,012.39 per ounce at 1:47 p.m. London time, but reached a May 16 high of $2,017.82 earlier in the day, Reuters reported. Gold futures for December hit $2,018.9, the highest level since Oct. 27, according to CNBC calculations.

The dollar index, a measurement of the greenback against major currencies, was 0.13% lower as markets price in a more than 90% chance the Fed will hold rates at its next two meetings.

CME’s FedWatch Tool shows a 25% probability of a cut as soon as March.

A weaker dollar and lower interest rates are often flagged by market-watchers as boosting gold prices.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note Sunday on the metals outlook for 2024 that gold’s “shine is returning.”

“The potential upside in gold prices will be closely tied to U.S. real rates and dollar moves, but we also expect persistent strong consumer demand from China and India, alongside central bank buying to offset downward pressures from upside growth surprises and rate cut repricing,” they said.

Bank of America analysts, meanwhile, said in a Sunday note that the commodities team’s base case was for gold to appreciate from the second quarter of 2024 as “real rates are pushed lower by the Fed cutting.”