Ukraine war live updates: Putin’s spy chief says Ukraine could become a ‘second Vietnam’ for the U.S. as it drags on resources

Russian nationalist Igor Girkin, who had said he wanted to challenge Vladimir Putin in a presidential election in March, had his detention extended for six months on Thursday as he awaits trial on charges of inciting extremism.

The ruling, announced by a Moscow court, extinguishes the already faint prospect that Girkin might be allowed to run.

The 52-year-old is known in the West for his role in the shooting-down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014 with the loss of 298 passengers and crew. A Dutch court last year convicted him in absentia of murder. Girkin has denied involvement.

The former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer had organised pro-Russian militias in eastern Ukraine since early 2014. Also known as Igor Strelkov, he has repeatedly said Russia faces upheaval unless the military leadership fights more effectively in Ukraine.

He could be jailed for five years if convicted of “public calls to commit extremist activity.”

Girkin complained in a Telegram post last May that authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Ukraine’s Donetsk region were failing to provide support payments to families of men who had been called up to fight against Ukraine.

Girkin posted that “to have someone shot for such a thing would be too little”. His lawyer said Girkin admitted writing the post but did not agree that it amounted to extremism or incitement. Girkin announced his unlikely election bid from prison last month, telling supporters to set up a headquarters and collect signatures.

His detention will now run well beyond the March 17 election, in which Putin is expected to stand and win comfortably. Girkin has said Putin was misled by Ukraine, the West and his own defense and security chiefs before launching his invasion in February 2022.

“It turned out that neither the country, nor the army, nor Russian industry were ready for war,” Girkin said in August.

In directly criticising the president, he crossed a line that not even mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin had dared to breach. Prigozhin, who mutinied against the defense establishment after savaging its conduct of the war, was killed in a plane crash in August that is still under investigation.

— Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Thursday that Russia’s economic isolation as a result of international sanctions is actually helping the country to become a “growth center” in a “new global economy.”

Addressing the Russia Calling business forum in Moscow Thursday, Putin said sovereignty was a requisite for economic success, repeating claims made previously that sanctions had made Russia economically self-sufficient.

“The world has entered an era of radical changes and serious tests not only for specific companies and sectors, but also for whole countries and regions of the world,” Putin said.

“Only a strong, stable and, I stress, sovereign country will be able to pass this phase successfully, to become one of the growth centers of the new global economy,” he said, in comments translated by Reuters.

Putin accused the West of destroying its own financial system, claiming that “it has been resting on its laurels, for so long becoming accustomed to monopolies and exclusivity, to the lack of real alternatives, to the habit of changing nothing, that it is becoming archaic.”

Putin also claimed Russia’s gross domestic product was set to grow 3.5% in 2023 after a 2.1% contraction in 2022. “Today, GDP is already higher than it was before the Western sanctions attack,” he told delegates.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s foreign intelligence chief told the United States on Thursday that Western support for Ukraine would turn the conflict into a “second Vietnam” haunting Washington for years to come.

Putin sent troops into Ukraine early last year, triggering a war that has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands and led to the biggest confrontation between Russia and the West in six decades.

The West has given Ukraine more than $246 billion in aid and weapons, but a Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed and Russia remains in control of just under a fifth of Ukrainian territory. “Ukraine will turn into a ‘black hole’ absorbing more and more resources and people,” Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), said in an article in the SVR’s house journal, “The Intelligence Operative”.

“Ultimately, the U.S. risks creating a ‘second Vietnam’ for itself, and every new American administration will have to try to deal with it.”

U.S. President Joe Biden has warned that a direct NATO-Russia confrontation could trigger World War Three and repeatedly ruled out sending American soldiers to Ukraine. The Vietnam War was in effect an East-West Cold War conflict in which the United States fought alongside the forces of South Vietnam against a north supported by the communist powers of China and the Soviet Union.

The war, in which several million were killed, ended in 1975 with victory for North Vietnam and ignominious defeat for the United States, which had lost more than 58,000 of its own combatants and kindled a powerful anti-war movement at home. Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh infusion of military aid for Ukraine.

— Reuters

The hardest part of the winter period is yet to come, an Ukrainian intelligence official said Thursday, warning that Ukraine needs to strengthen air defenses ahead of expected Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

“Russia is retaining certain capabilities to produce various types of weapons. It is a serious challenge for Ukraine’s security and defense forces and the pro-Ukrainian coalition. We need more support. The hardest part of winter is ahead,” Andrii Yusov, the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate at Ukraine’s defense ministry, said during a nationwide telethon Thursday, media outlet Ukrinform reported.

Russia’s missile stocks are much lower compared to last year and the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Yusov said, but he warned that the threat of Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine’s civil and energy infrastructure remains.

Ukraine has braced itself for another season of intense attacks on its power networks after its experience last year of attacks and power blackouts. State-owned power grid operator Ukrenergo said in April that Russian forces had used over 1,200 missiles and drones to attack Ukraine’s energy infrastructure since October 2022. With 250 of those weapons hitting their desired targets, over 40% of the energy grid was damaged, the operator said.

Ukrenergo described last winter as “the most difficult heating season in the history of the Ukrainian energy system,” saying “no European energy system has experienced such a large-scale destruction attempt.”

— Holly Ellyatt

A driver was killed and grain infrastructure damaged by a Russian drone attack on Ukrainian grain infrastructure near the Danube River, the governor of Odesa region said on Thursday.

The governor said the drone attack lasted for over two hours overnight, and that while most were shot down, some got through, damaging a storage building, an elevator and trucks.

Ukraine’s Danube ports have become a key artery for the country’s huge export volumes of grain as Russia blockades the Black Sea since invading its neighbor in February 2022.

Moscow hit Danube port infrastructure with waves of drone attacks in August and September, but the latest overnight attack came after a recent lull.

The latest strike was the first on Danube facilities since Nov. 21.

Ukraine’s air force said 18 Shahed drones were launched in total at the southern Odesa region and Khmelnytskyi region, which is in west Ukraine. Fifteen of the drones were shot down by air defence rocket systems and mobile fire groups, the air force said.

— Reuters

Russian citizens appear increasingly keen to question Russia’s leadership on the expected time frame and outcome of the war in Ukraine, despite attempts by the Kremlin to avoid a focus on what it calls a “special military operation” before the 2024 election.

A survey by independent Russian polling organization Levada Center published Tuesday looked at the questions that Russian citizens want to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin during the upcoming “Direct Line” — an annual phone-in that allows the Russian public to ask Putin a variety of (admittedly curated) questions. It will take place on Dec. 14.

The Levada Center found that 21% of all questions in the open-ended poll related to the end of the war in Ukraine and what the outcome of the so-called “special military operation” would be.

The Levada Center reported that questions in this category included questions about the time frame for an end to the war, the end of mobilization, and the possibility of peace or victory.

“The poll indicates that the Russian public continues to have questions about the end and outcome of the war despite the Russian government’s attempts to silence anti-war rhetoric and protests to mobilization,” the Institute for the Study of War noted Wednesday.

The poll is consistent with recent independent Russian polling indicating that Russians increasingly support a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and showing that over half of Russian respondents believe that Russia should begin peace negotiations with Ukraine, the ISW noted.

Putin is expected to use the Dec.14 phone-in (which will be combined with his annual press conference) to announce that he intends to run in the March 2024 presidential election. It’s widely expected that Putin will try to steer clear of predicating his campaign on the war, however, with a focus on domestic stability instead.

It’s therefore unclear if Putin intends to address questions about the war during the “Direct Line” event. 

“The Kremlin also appears to be increasingly implementing measures to ensure that Putin’s actual electoral success does not depend on battlefield successes and domestic force generation efforts,” the ISW noted.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia’s Federation Council, the upper house of Russia’s Federal Assembly, voted unanimously Thursday to hold Russia’s next presidential election on March 17, 2024.

“In essence, this decision marks the start of the election campaign,” Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the upper house of parliament, said Thursday, according to news agency Interfax.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet announced whether he will stand for reelection, although he is widely expected to do so. He is expected to announce his intention to run again in his annual press conference and public phone-in on Dec. 14.

The Kremlin insists that political plurality is alive and well in Russia but, in reality, there is a “systemic opposition” of several long-standing political parties that largely toe the government line.

Many of Putin’s critics and political opponents have been silenced through imprisonment or sustained campaigns of harassment and intimidation that have prompted them to flee the country. A number have died in suspicious circumstances in the more than two decades Putin has been in power. The Kremlin has invariably denied any involvement in attacks on the political opposition.

— Holly Ellyatt

A top Russian official said U.S. President Joe Biden’s warning about a potential direct clash between the U.S. and Russia “is unacceptable for a responsible nuclear power.”

Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, commented on Telegram Thursday that the U.S. was trying to “‘add fuel’ to the fire of the Ukrainian war ‘by proxy.'”

Russia has repeatedly claimed that the war in Ukraine is a “proxy war” and that the country is being used by its Western allies, such as NATO, to try to “defeat” Russia. NATO, which has supplied large amounts of military aid to Ukraine, says it is helping Kyiv to defend its territorial sovereignty after Russia’s unprovoked invasion in early 2022.

“They have completely lost touch with reality, easily talking about the likelihood of a direct clash between the armed forces of our countries,” Antonov wrote.

“This kind of provocative rhetoric is unacceptable for a responsible nuclear power,” the official added. 

Antonov’s comments came after Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh tranche of military aid for Ukraine, warning that a victory for Russia in Ukraine would strengthen Moscow to such an extent that it could then attack NATO allies and draw U.S. troops into a war.

“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said, Reuters reported. Russia could then attack a NATO ally, he warned, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said.

“We can’t let Putin win,” he said.

Russia’s ambassador to the U.S. repeated claims that “Washington and its insatiable military-industrial complex are the direct beneficiaries of the bloodshed in Ukraine” and that Washington was “wreaking havoc around the world just to save American hegemony from decline.”

— Holly Ellyatt

An emergency spending bill to provide billions of dollars in new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel was blocked in the U.S. Senate on Wednesday as Republicans pressed their demands for tougher measures to control immigration at the U.S. border with Mexico.

The vote was 49 in favor to 51 against, leaving the $110.5 billion measure short of the 60 votes needed in the 100-member Senate to pave the way to start debate, threatening President Joe Biden’s push to provide new aid before the end of 2023.

The vote was along party lines, with every Senate Republican voting no along with Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who generally votes with Democrats but had expressed concerns about funding Israel’s “current inhumane military strategy” against Palestinians.

The bill would provide about $50 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, as well as money for humanitarian and economic aid for the government in Kyiv, plus $14 billion for Israel as it battles Hamas in Gaza. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, also voted “no” so that he could introduce the measure again in the future.

After the vote, Schumer noted the risks if Ukraine falls, saying it was a “serious moment that will have lasting consequences for the 21st century,” risking the decline of Western democracy. Republicans said it was essential to make their case for tighter immigration policies and control of the southern border.

“Today’s vote is what it takes for the Democratic leader to recognize that Senate Republicans mean what we say,” Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said in a floor speech earlier on Wednesday. “Then let’s vote. And then let’s finally start meeting America’s national security priorities, including right here at home.”

Even if the bill passes the Senate, it still would need to be approved in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, where dozens of Republicans have voted against Ukraine aid, including Speaker Mike Johnson.

— Reuters

President Joe Biden pleaded with Republicans on Wednesday for a fresh infusion of military aid for Ukraine, warning that a victory for Russia over Ukraine would leave Moscow in position to attack NATO allies and could draw U.S. troops into a war.

Biden spoke as the United States planned to announce $175 million in additional Ukraine aid from its dwindling supply of money for Kyiv.

He signaled a willingness to make significant changes to U.S. migration policy along the border with Mexico to try to draw Republican support.

“If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Biden said. Putin will attack a NATO ally, he predicted, and then “we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today: American troops fighting Russian troops,” Biden said.

“We can’t let Putin win,” he said, prompting an angry reaction from Moscow.

Russia’s RIA news agency quoted the Russian ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, as saying that Biden’s comments on a potential U.S.-Russia conflict were “provocative rhetoric unacceptable for a responsible nuclear power.”

However, Senate Republicans later on Wednesday blocked Democratic-backed legislation that would have provided billions of dollars in new security assistance for Ukraine and Israel, among other international concerns, saying they wanted to press their point about the importance of tighter border policy.

The White House warned this week that the U.S. is running out of time and money to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion.

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan, in a phone interview with Reuters about building up Ukraine’s defense industrial base, said the U.S. was sticking to its long-held position not to pressure Ukraine into negotiations with Russia. “That’s going to have to be up to them. We’re just going to keep fighting day in and day out to try to secure this money,” Sullivan said.

“We’re going to keep making the case that it would be a historic mistake for the United States to walk away from Ukraine at this moment and we believe that argument will ultimately penetrate and prevail,” he said.

— Reuters

Russia in recent weeks rejected a substantial new proposal for the release of Paul Whelan and Evan Gershkovich, two Americans considered by the U.S. to be “wrongfully detained” in Russia, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Tuesday.

Miller declined to provide details on what Washington proposed and it was the first time the United States revealed such a proposal had been made. Whelan and Gershkovich have been charged in Russia with spying, which they deny.

“In recent weeks, we made a new and significant proposal to secure Paul and Evan’s release. That proposal was rejected by Russia. We shouldn’t have to make these proposals. They never should have been arrested in the first place. They should both be released immediately,” Miller told reporters.

“It will not deter us from continuing to do everything we can to try and bring both of them home.” The proposal was not for other detainees, Miller said.

The Russian state news agency RIA on Wednesday quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as responding by saying: “We don’t discuss this topic in public.”

— Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin is making a rare trip abroad Wednesday as he meets with Moscow’s allies in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Here’s what’s on the agenda for the meeting, according to a readout from the Kremlin:

The working trip is Putin’s first visit to the region since October 2019, although Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have regular diplomatic ties and all belong to the major oil producing alliance known as OPEC+.

Russia’s visit to the Middle East sees it reasserting its diplomatic clout in the region, with Moscow occupying the rare position of being allies with regional arch-rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, and surrounding countries such as Syria, Iraq and Qatar. Russia also enjoyed cordial relations with Israel but has become increasingly critical of the conflict in Gaza as the humanitarian crisis has worsened.

Putin is also set to welcome Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Moscow Thursday, with analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noting Tuesday that Putin’s “bout of diplomatic outreach” was “likely focused on strengthening Russia’s position with Gulf States while continuing to solidify the deepening Russian–Iranian security partnership.”

— Holly Ellyatt

Moscow has repeated that it’s ready for talks with Ukraine, with the Kremlin’s spokesman claiming Russia would prefer to negotiate through “political and diplomatic means.”

“The President has repeatedly said that the main thing for us is to achieve our goals [in Ukraine],” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told RTVI, Russian state news agency Tass reported.

“And, of course, we would prefer to do this primarily through political and diplomatic means. That’s why we remain ready for negotiations.”

Peskov again reiterated Moscow’s criticism of Ukraine for pulling out of previous negotiations. Kyiv has said it won’t hold talks with Moscow while Russian troops remain on its territory.

The Kremlin representative also commented on a report in the Izvestia newspaper, which stated that negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv could resume on the territory of one of the Western countries — for example, in Hungary. Peskov said that the idea could theoretically materialize.

— Holly Ellyatt

The U.K. announced 46 new sanctions Wednesday targeting individuals and groups that it accused of “supplying and funding Putin’s war machine.”

The sanctions include the targeting of businesses in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan who continue to support Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said in a statement.

Russian weapons manufacturers and defense importers were also among the list of 46 new sanctions imposed as well as three entities and individuals supporting the Wagner Group network and operators of so-called “shadow fleet” vessels “used by Russia to soften the blow of oil-related sanctions imposed by the U.K. alongside G7 partners.”

“Today’s measures will disrupt Putin’s ability to equip his military through third-party supply chains in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan,” the FCDO said.

Among those sanctioned today were 31 individuals and entities linked to Russia’s military industrial complex and the designing and manufacturing of drones and missile parts and the importing and supplying key electronic components.

The latest sanctions package comes as G7 leaders meet virtually to discuss and agree additional measures designed to reduce revenue streams that Russia needs to finance its war in Ukraine.

G7 leaders are expected to announce a ban on Russian diamonds and measures to manage some 300 billion euros ($323.58 billion) in immobilized Russian central bank assets, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters earlier.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russia’s relations with the United Arab Emirates have reached an “unprecedented high level,” President Vladimir Putin said Wednesday as he began a working trip to the Middle East.

Putin prepared to begin negotiations with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan by calling the emirates Russia’s main trading partner in the Arab world.

“Today, thanks to your position, our relations have reached an unprecedented high level. And we are in constant contact, our colleagues are constantly working with each other,” Putin said at the start of talks.

Discussions are expected to focus on “the state and prospects for further development of multifaceted Russian-UAE cooperation, as well as current international issues with an emphasis on the state of affairs in the Middle East region,” the Kremlin said earlier.

In comments ahead of the talks, Putin said “we will discuss with you the situation in the hottest spots, first of all, of course, in the Arab-Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Of course, I will inform you about the situation in the Ukrainian crisis,” he added.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s allies are trying to mount a show of support to Ukraine this week as the future of more military funding is in doubt.

Leaders of the Group of Seven countries are set to hold a virtual meeting on Wednesday with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The war will be on the agenda, but the meeting comes amid bitter wrangling between U.S. lawmakers over an additional aid package of over $100 billion that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel, as well as U.S. border security funding.

There are heightened concerns that if Ukraine does not receive more aid, it will not be able to continue fighting Russia’s invasion, a prospect worrying U.S. and Ukrainian officials as the summer counteroffensive is already deemed to have largely failed in its objectives.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Tuesday that the U.S. would be “responsible for Ukraine’s defeat” if Congress failed to approve the Biden administration’s multibillion-dollar funding request for Ukraine, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Tuesday that there was a “big risk” that Ukraine would lose the war without further U.S. funding.

Zelenskyy canceled a virtual briefing with U.S. lawmakers Tuesday as the furore over future aid continued. No reason was given for the cancellation.

— Holly Ellyatt