Fed Chief Jerome Powell says a March rate cut is not likely

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the central bank would likely not be comfortable enough with the path of inflation by its next meeting in March to cut interest rates.

“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. But that’s to be seen,” Powell said.

The statement came in a news conference after the Fed’s January meeting, where the central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. Powell did say earlier in the news conference that rate cuts would likely begin at some point this year.

Stocks fell to their session lows as the Fed chief dashed hopes of traders who want the central bank to slash rates sooner, before there’s a recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 300 points at one point.

The Fed’s policy statement released earlier Wednesday included several tweaks that suggested the central bank was taking further rate hikes off the table but not yet ready to cut. Powell’s comments appeared to clarify for traders that the stance would continue for at least one more meeting.

“The Fed was badly burned in late 2021 and 2022 when they thought high inflation would be transitory, then got caught by surprise when it was higher and more persistent than expected. They want to avoid making the same mistake twice,” Comerica Bank’s chief economist, Bill Adams, said in a note Wednesday afternoon.

“The Fed will wait to pull the trigger on rate cuts until they see the whites of 2% inflation’s eyes,” Adams added.

Powell also declined to commit to a series of rate cuts once the Fed makes its first move, saying that it “would depend on the data.”

The central bank’s next two policy decision dates are scheduled for March 20 and May 1. In recent months, traders and Wall Street strategists have focused on those two meetings as likely candidates for the first rate cut, as inflation continues to fall and job growth slows.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is updated near the end of each month. There will likely be only one more PCE reading before the Fed’s March meeting, but three more before May.

There will also be three more federal jobs reports released before the May meeting, with the January report due out on Friday.

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