Russia is preparing a new summer offensive against Ukraine, Zelenskyy says; China slams sanctions threat

Hungary on Monday voted to approve Sweden’s NATO accession bid, ending months of diplomatic negotiations and finalizing Stockholm’s membership almost two years after it first applied to join the military alliance.

Members of the governing party led by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban had been opposed to Sweden joining NATO amid the country’s criticism of Hungary’s democracy.

Sweden applied to join NATO in May 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, shifting away from its previous policy approach of military non-alignment.

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— Karen Gilchrist, Sophie Kiderlin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov discussed economic relations and support in a meeting on Monday, Zelenskyy said in a post on social media platform X.

“I appreciate Bulgaria’s support for our efforts to expand trade flows and restore normal shipping in the Black Sea and Danube regions,” Zelenskyy said. “We agreed with Bulgaria to accelerate the development of logistics and infrastructure in our region.”

Infrastructure on the Danube river in the south of Ukraine has been crucial to the country’s grain trade since a previous deal that allowed safe passage for grain and other traded goods through the Black Sea was halted by Russia last year.

— Sophie Kiderlin

Kusti Salm, permanent secretary of the Estonian Ministry of Defense, discusses the need to increase defense spending for Ukraine.

— Holly Ellyatt

Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was close to being freed in a prisoner swap at the time of his death, Maria Pevchikh, a Navalny ally, said on Monday.

Speaking on YouTube, Pevchikh — who alleges the Russian authorities murdered Navalny, something they deny — said Navalny and two U.S. nationals were in line to be exchanged for Vadim Krasikov, a Russian FSB security service hit man who is serving a life sentence in Germany.

— Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with his Turkish counterpart, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, after the Russian presidential election in mid-March, the Kremlin said Monday.

“Before the elections, no,” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday, when asked when the meeting might take place.

“But preparations for contacts at the highest level are underway, we have repeatedly stated this,” he said, news agency Interfax reported.

Peskov explained that “these contacts will take place at a time when it best suits the schedules of the two presidents.”

Putin will travel to Turkey for the meeting with Erdogan, a leader who has managed to maintain cordial relations with Russia despite Turkey’s NATO membership.

— Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s military confirmed Monday the retreat from the village of Lastochkyne in eastern Ukraine, marking another setback on the battlefield two years into the war.

“Ukrainian Armed Forces units withdrew from the village of Lastochkyne in order to organise defences… and prevent the enemy from advancing further in a western direction,” military spokesperson Dmytro Lykhoviy said on television, Reuters reported.

Russian forces have made several major and minor advances in recent weeks, including the capture of the industrial city of Avdiivka, as well as a couple of smaller settlements to the west of the city.

— Holly Ellyatt

The Kremlin said on Monday that a decision by Denmark to drop its investigation into the 2022 Nord Stream 2 pipeline explosions was “close to absurdity.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Denmark had recognised that the blasts had been an act of premeditated sabotage, but had decided not to go further with the investigation anyway because the case involved Copenhagen’s close allies.

He said Denmark had refused requests to provide information about its investigation.

— Reuters

French President Emmanuel Macron will host more than 20 heads of state and government representatives for a meeting on Ukraine in Paris on Monday.

“Two years after the start of the invasion of Ukraine, the participants will reaffirm their unity and their determination to defeat the war of aggression led by Russia in Ukraine,” the Elysee Palace said in a statement Monday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron and Polish President Andrzej Duda will be among officials attending the conference. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will address the conference via videolink.

“This conference will be an opportunity to share observations of the situation on the ground, the profound destabilization caused by Russia and its renewed aggressiveness against Ukraine and against Europe,” it added.

The meeting is an opportunity to study the means available to respond ever more quickly and efficiently to the needs of Ukraine and its people, the president’s office said.

An unnamed French presidential official was quoted by news outlet France 24 as saying that the meeting was designed to contradict any “impression that things are falling apart” after Ukraine’s recent challenges on the battlefield.

On Friday, the eve of the second anniversary of the war, Macron commented that Ukraine was “battered and bruised, but still standing.”

“Ukraine is fighting for itself, for its ideals, for our Europe. Our commitment at its side will not waver,” Macron wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

— Holly Ellyatt

China firmly opposes the United States imposing sanctions on Chinese enterprises for Russia-related reasons, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Monday.

China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, the ministry said in a statement on its website.

The Biden administration on Friday announced new trade restrictions on 93 entities from Russia, China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan, India and South Korea for supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.

The action, one day before the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, essentially bans U.S. shipments to the targeted entities, including eight from China, 63 from Russia, 16 from Turkey and four from the UAE.

— Reuters

Russia is preparing a new offensive against Ukraine that could begin in late May or summer, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday, denying that his country is at its weakest point in the war.

“We will prepare for their assault. Their assault that began on Oct. 8 has not brought any results, I believe. We, for our part, will prepare our plan and follow it,” Zelenskyy told reporters in Kyiv, Reuters reported.

He denied Ukraine is at the weakest point in the war, instead telling NBC that this is the most difficult time for unity.

“I don’t think that now it’s the weakest moment,” he said. “The weakest, or rather, [the most] shocking moment was on February 24, two years ago. Now is the hardest moment for our unity. If we all split, both externally with the partners, and God forbid, internally, then it would be the weakest moment. It hasn’t happened yet,” Zelenskyy told NBC’s Richard Engel at a news conference Sunday.

Zelenskyy said events in the Middle East had distracted attention from Ukraine, noting that this had coincided with the end of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive and Russia beginning offensive operations.

“Now we just see the consequences, when we are weakened by the quantity of weapons. Otherwise we wouldn’t notice it … The aid package has weakened — we have weakened on the battlefield, in those directions that you mentioned,” Zelenskyy said.

He said the first year of the war was about survival, the second year about resilience, and as Russia and Ukraine enter a third year of war, the country faces challenges in the form of elections, war and funding fatigue.

 — Holly Ellyatt

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia’s invasion two years ago.

“31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in this war. Not 300,000 or 150,000, or whatever Putin and his lying circle are saying. But each of these losses is a great loss for us,” Zelenskyy said at a news conference.

He said he could not disclose the number of wounded because it would help Russian military planning.

It’s the first time Ukraine has published an official death toll since late 2022. The true figure is likely to be far higher, with U.S. officials estimating last August that at least 70,000 Ukrainian troops had died and that up to 120,000 had been injured.

Russia is also tight-lipped about military losses, although both sides claim to have inflicted tens of thousands of casualties upon each other’s forces. Zelenskyy claimed Sunday that 180,000 Russian troops had been killed in action during the war. CNBC was unable to verify the claims.

— Holly Ellyatt