A Simple Overview of Quantitative Analysis

Fact checked by Michael LoganReviewed by Gordon Scott

What Is Quantitative Analysis?

Quantitative analysis (also known as quant analysis or QA) in finance is an approach that emphasizes mathematical and statistical analysis to help determine the value of a financial asset, such as a stock or option. Quantitative trading analysts (also known as “quants“) use a variety of data to develop trading algorithms and computer models, including historical investment and stock market data.

The information generated by these computer models helps investors analyze investment opportunities and develop what they believe will be a successful trading strategy. Typically, this trading strategy will include very specific information about entry and exit points, the expected risk of the trade, and the expected return.

The ultimate goal of financial quantitative analysis is to use quantifiable statistics and metrics to assist investors in making profitable investment decisions. In this article, we review the history of quantitative investing, compare it to qualitative analysis, and provide an example of a quant-based strategy in action.

Key Takeaways

• Quantitative analysis emerged from the rise of the computer era, which made it easier than ever before to analyze huge amounts of data in short amounts of time.
• Quantitative trading analysts (quants) identify trading patterns, build models to assess those patterns, and make predictions about the price and direction of securities.
• Once the models are built and the information is gathered, quants use the data to set up automated trades of securities.
• Quantitative analysis is different from qualitative analysis, which looks at non-statistical aspects of a company to make predictions.
• Quantitative analysis can be used to mitigate risk by identifying which investments provide the best level of return relative to an investor’s preferred level of risk.

Origins of Quant Investing

Nobel Prize-winning economist Harry Markowitz is generally credited with beginning the quantitative investment movement when he published “Portfolio Selection” in the Journal of Finance in March 1952. Markowitz introduced modern portfolio theory (MPT), which showed investors how to construct a diversified portfolio of assets capable of maximizing returns for various risk levels. Markowitz used math to quantify diversification and is cited as an early adopter of the concept that mathematical models could be applied to investing.

Robert Merton, a pioneer in modern financial theory, won a Nobel Prize for his research into mathematical methods for pricing derivatives. The work of Markowitz and Merton laid the foundation for the quantitative (quant) approach to investing.

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Analysis

Unlike traditional qualitative investment analysts, quants don’t visit companies, meet the management teams, or research the products the firms sell to identify a competitive edge. They often don’t know or care about the qualitative aspects of the companies they invest in or the products or services these companies provide. Instead, they rely purely on math to make investment decisions.

Quants—who frequently have a scientific background and a degree in statistics or math—will use their knowledge of computers and programming languages to build customized trading systems that automate the trading process. The inputs to their programs might range from key financial ratios (such as the price-to-earnings ratio) to more complex calculations, such as discounted cash flow (DCF) valuations.

Hedge fund managers embraced the methodology. Advances in computing technology further advanced the field, allowing complex algorithms could be calculated in the blink of an eye and creating automated trading strategies. The field flourished during the dotcom boom and bust.

Quant strategies stumbled in the Great Recession as they failed to account for the impact mortgage-backed securities had on the market and economy as a whole. However, quant strategies remain in use today and have gained notable attention for their role in high-frequency trading (HFT), which relies on math to make trading decisions.

Quantitative investing is also widely practiced both as a stand-alone discipline and in conjunction with traditional qualitative analysis for both return enhancement and risk mitigation.

Important

Quantitative analysts don’t look at who manages a company, what its balance sheet looks like, what products it makes, or any other qualitative factor. They focus entirely on the numbers and choose the investment that, mathematically speaking, offers the best return for the lowest level of risk.

Data Used in Quantitative Analysis

The rise of the computer era made it possible to crunch enormous volumes of data in extraordinarily short periods of time. This has led to increasingly complex quantitative trading strategies, as traders seek to identify consistent patterns, model those patterns, and use them to predict price movements in securities.

Quants implement their strategies using publicly available data. The identification of patterns enables them to set up automatic triggers to buy or sell securities.

For example, a trading strategy based on trading volume patterns may have identified a correlation between trading volume and prices. So if the trading volume on a particular stock rises when the stock’s price hits $25 per share and drops when the price hits $30, a quant might set up an automatic buy at $25.50 and an automatic sell at $29.50.

Similar strategies can be based on earnings, earnings forecasts, earnings surprises, and a host of other factors. In each case, pure quant traders don’t care about the company’s sales prospects, management team, product quality, or any other aspect of its business. They are placing their orders to buy and sell based strictly on the numbers accounted for in the patterns they have identified.

Risk Reduction

Quantitative analysis can be used to identify patterns that may lend themselves to profitable security trades, but that isn’t its only value. While making money is a goal every investor can understand, quantitative analysis can also be used to reduce risk.

The pursuit of so-called “risk-adjusted returns” involves comparing risk measures such as alpha, beta, r-squared, standard deviation, and the Sharpe ratio to identify the investment that will deliver the highest level of return for the given level of risk. The idea is that investors should take no more risk than is necessary to achieve their targeted level of return.

So if the data reveals that two investments are likely to generate similar returns, but that one will be significantly more volatile in terms of up and down price swings, quants (and common sense) would recommend the less risky investment.

Risk-parity portfolios are an example of quant-based strategies in action. The basic concept involves making asset allocation decisions based on market volatility. When volatility declines, the level of risk-taking in the portfolio goes up. When volatility increases, the level of risk-taking in the portfolio goes down.

Example of Quantitative Analysis

To make the example a little more realistic, consider a portfolio that divides its assets between cash and an S&P 500 index fund. Using the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) as a proxy for stock market volatility, when volatility rises, our hypothetical portfolio would shift its assets toward cash.

When volatility declines, our portfolio would shift assets to the S&P 500 index fund. Models can be significantly more complex than the one we reference here, perhaps including stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, and other investments, but the concept remains the same.

Pros and Cons of Quant Trading

Like any trading strategy, quantitative analysis offers both advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages

• Unemotional: In quant trading, the patterns and numbers are all that matter. It is an effective buy-sell discipline, as it can be executed consistently, unhindered by the emotion that is often associated with financial decisions.
• Cost-effective: Firms that rely on quant strategies don’t need to hire large teams of analysts and portfolio managers or travel to assess potential investments. They use computers to analyze the data and execute the trades.

Disadvantages

• Vulnerable to manipulated data: Quant analysis involves culling through vast amounts of data. Choosing the right data is by no means a guarantee, just as trading patterns that appear to suggest certain outcomes may work perfectly until they don’t. Even when a pattern appears to work, validating the patterns can be a challenge.
• Qualitative factors matter: Inflection points, such as the stock market downturn of 2008-09, can be tough on these strategies, as patterns can change suddenly. Humans can see a scandal or management change as it is developing, while a purely mathematical approach cannot necessarily do so.
• Widely used: A strategy becomes less effective as an increasing number of investors attempt to employ it. Patterns that work will become less effective as more and more investors try to profit from them.

What Is Quant Finance?

Quant finance, short for quantitative finance, is using large datasets and mathematical models to analyze patterns in financial markets. It is used by traders to make predictions about how markets will behave, then buy or sell securities based on those predictions.

What Is a Quant?

Quants or quant traders are traders who use quantitative analysis to analyze financial markets and make trading decisions.

What Is the Difference Between Quantitative Analysis and Qualitative Analysis?

Quantitative analysis uses statistical models to make predictions or reach conclusions based solely on things that can be measured. Qualitative analysis makes predictions using subjective, non-numerical data, such as opinions, attitudes, or experiences.

The Bottom Line

Many investment strategies use a blend of both quantitative and qualitative strategies. They use quant strategies to identify potential investments and then use qualitative analysis to take their research efforts to the next level in identifying the final investment.

They may also use qualitative insight to select investments and quant data for risk management. While both quantitative and qualitative investment strategies have their proponents and their critics, the strategies do not need to be mutually exclusive.

Read the original article on Investopedia.