Tata Motors stock jumps 1% after robust JLR sales, brokerages bullish

Analysts expect JLR’s profit margin to be around 9.1 percent during the quarter, better than the previous quarter’s 8.8 percent

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Shares of Tata Motors Limited advanced 1.3 percent to Rs 1,026, extending gains on April 9 after its British luxury arm Jaguar Land Rover’s fourth quarter retail sales grew 11 percent on-year to 114,038 units, surpassing expectations. Analysts, however, remained cautious about margins due to the product mix.

The surge in JLR sales has been attributed to heightened production levels and consistent global demand. Retail sales grew 32 percent in the UK, 21 percent in North America and 16 percent internationally from the year-ago period. Sales in China, one of JLR’s biggest markets, however, declined 9 percent and a 2 percent in Europe, the country’s largest EV player said in a business update.

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For the March quarter, wholesale volumes reached 110,190 vehicles, a 16 percent growth from the year-ago period.

Should you buy, sell or hold?

Macquarie has assigned an “outperform” call on the stock with a price target of Rs 1,028 a share. The stock has already breached Macquarie’s target with an all-time high of Rs 1,065.

The brokerage said JLR’s performance in Q4 FY24 slightly exceeded expectations in terms of wholesale figures. The EBITDA margin, however, might remain flat quarter-on-quarter when results are released due to a 100 basis points decrease in the share of premium models and higher incentive spending.

Morgan Stanley is also bullish on the counter with an “overweight” call and a price target of Rs 1,013. Its analysts said that the mix was weaker as they sold fewer of their premium models. They expect JLR’s profit margin to be around 9.1 percent during the quarter, better than the previous quarter’s 8.8 percent.

Nomura also has a “buy” call and a target price of Rs 1,057. This implies an upside of over 4 percent from the last close of Rs 1,013. Nomura estimates that JLR will have a free cash flow (FCF) of GBP 600-700 million in the last quarter, which should help them reduce their net debt to less than GBP 1 billion.

At 9.20 am, the stock was trading at Rs 1,029 on the National Stock Exchange, up 1.6 percent from the previous close. Tata Motors’ stock has rallied over 28 percent in the last three months.

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