Biden’s EV tariffs may not be enough to stave off the threat of Chinese vehicles in the U.S.

DETROIT — President Joe Biden’s plan to quadruple tariffs on China-made electric vehicles is unlikely to stave off the threat of more Chinese cars on the auto sales market in the U.S.

The 100% tariff announced Tuesday, up from a current import tax of about 25%, covers EVs imported from China but could still leave room for the often-cheap Chinese models to undercut domestic prices and leaves loopholes for imports made by Chinese automakers in other countries, like neighboring Mexico. It also does nothing to address current or future gas-powered vehicles imported from the Communist country to the U.S.

Automotive and trade experts say the increased tariffs are a near-term protectionism act that may delay but won’t stop Chinese automakers from coming to the U.S. with EVs.

“They’re going to be here. It’s inevitable. It’s just a matter of time,” said Dan Hearsch, Americas co-leader of automotive and industrial practice at consulting firm AlixPartners. “Western automakers, Western suppliers really ought to be upping their game and preparing to take this on or play with them. It’s one or the other.”

The EV tariffs, including other increases regarding battery materials, were among new tariff rates on $18 billion worth of Chinese imports.

The quality of Chinese automakers’ vehicles has gotten significantly better in recent years, as Beijing has helped by subsidizing their operations to grow domestic production. The increase in domestic automakers has led to a rapid deterioration of market share in the country for global automakers such as General Motors.

Global players have made more inroads in the U.S. market in recent years. The so-called Big Three U.S. automakers — GM, Ford Motor and Chrysler, now owned by Stellantis — have watched their market share in the country deteriorate from 75% in 1984 to about 40% in 2023, according to industry data.

GM and others have found it hard to compete against budget and mainstream Chinese vehicles, including EVs. For example, a small EV from Warren Buffett-backed BYD called the Seagull starts at around $10,000 and reportedly banks a profit for the increasingly influential Chinese automaker.

Though the Seagull isn’t yet sold on U.S. soil, BYD is expanding its vehicles globally, and some believe it’s only a matter of time before more China-made vehicles arrive in the U.S.

Even with the new 100% tariff, its pricing would likely be in line with or better than many EVs currently on sale in the U.S.

“Ultimately, we think protectionism from the West could remain a near-term overhang for Chinese EV/parts makers aiming for rapid global expansion, but we think it is unlikely to halt China’s EV push in the long run,” Morgan Stanley analyst Tim Hsiao said in an investor note this week.

Though some automakers currently import gas-powered vehicles from China into the U.S., the numbers are small. Wall Street analysts, citing the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, report fewer than 75,000 vehicles were imported into the U.S. last year.

Vehicles made in China and currently sold in the U.S. include GM’s gas-powered Buick Envision, Ford’s Lincoln Nautilus and two all-electric vehicles from Geely-owned Volvo and its spinoff EV startup Polestar.

Polestar, with a small lineup of vehicles, is notably reliant on its Chinese imports. The company, in a statement, said it is “currently evaluating the announcement of tariff increases from the Biden Administration,” saying it believes “free trade is essential to speed up the transition to more sustainable mobility through increased EV adoption.”