Iran has voted in a reformist president — but change remains distant

Iran on Friday elected its first “reformist” president in 20 years, signaling many voters’ rejection of hardline conservative policies amid low turnout of just 49%, according to official figures.

Masoud Pezeshkian, a former health minister and member of parliament, was the most moderate of the candidates vying for the presidency after the sudden death of former President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. 

Described as a “token reformist” and “second-tier candidate” by many analysts, the 69-year-old Pezeshkian was seen as having scant chance at the presidency as he lacked name recognition and was up against a highly conservative system.

“The whole election process leading to Pezeshkian’s victory now has indeed been surprising. It does mark a notable shift in Iran’s political landscape,” Sina Toossi, a senior non-resident fellow at the Center for International Policy, told CNBC.

The result, Toossi said, “reflects a complex interplay of voter discontent, abstention, and a desire for change. Despite the heavily controlled and undemocratic nature of the election process, Pezeshkian’s success signals a rejection of hardline extremism and an appetite for reform and better relations with the global community.”

His victory at the polls was all the more surprising given the fact that Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council decides who is allowed to run for election in the first place, heavily favoring conservative candidates. 

Still, Pezeshkian “faces substantial challenges from entrenched hardliners and external pressures, making his presidency a critical and uncertain chapter for Iran’s future,” Toossi said.

The protests led to severe crackdowns and frequent internet blackouts by Iranian authorities, as well as thousands of arrests and several executions.

But despite Pezeshkian’s stated support for relaxing things like headscarf penalties, Iran-focused human rights groups are not optimistic.

“Anyone pledging loyalty to the [Iranian] constitution, a ‘reformist,’ a ‘moderate,’ a ‘conservative,’ … is ultimately a hardliner by democratic standards,” the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran wrote in a report Friday. “This is why many Iranians have lost hope in bringing about change through the ballot boxes and are boycotting elections.” 

“The choice of the president may lead to minor shifts but, even in the best case scenario, it will fail to bring significant change to Iran,” the report read. “The core structure of Iran’s theocratic regime, where a Supreme Leader’s authority eclipses that of any president, will remain steadfastly intact… In essence, Iran’s theocracy is designed to resist meaningful change.”

Pezeshkian wants to focus on sanctions relief for Iran and its battered economy and has talked about repairing some relations with the West, particularly on the issue the Iranian nuclear deal, which lifted harsh economic sanctions in exchange for curbs on the country’s nuclear program. 

Iran is now closer than ever to bomb-making capability, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency — and at the same time, former President Donald Trump, who introduced a strict set of sanctions against Tehran during his previous term, may return to the White House in November. If Trump takes office and maintains his previously staunch position of piling sanctions on Iran and abandoning the nuclear deal, then Pezeshkian’s goals are essentially futile.  

The Iranian election result presents a “potential to open up to the West, but comes at precisely the wrong time given we are at the [potential] end of the Biden presidency, and likely a Trump presidency and the GOP hawks will have zero interest of engagement with Iran,” Tim Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said in an email note.

“Notable I think that Iran, like the Gulf states, would want to concentrate on the economy as a drive to alleviate political pressure,” he added, “but seems unlikely that given the U.S. political cycle, and events in Gaza, there will be any desire to open up to ‘reformers’ in Iran.”