What a Harris election victory could mean for Europe and the trans-Atlantic relationship

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August 22, 2024
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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (L) and US Vice President Kamala Harris (R) line up for the family photo at the UK Artificial Intelligence (AI) Safety Summit at Bletchley Park, in central England, on November 2, 2023.

Daniel Leal | Afp | Getty Images

Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to take the stage at the Democratic National Convention on Thursday and deliver what is thought to be the biggest political speech of her career.

The 59-year-old politician is expected to outline her vision and policy agenda to the American people, while many in Europe will also be curious to understand what a Harris presidency could mean for the trans-Atlantic relationship.

Harris, who ascended to the top of the Democrats’ ticket after President Joe Biden brought an end to his campaign last month, is set to go head-to-head in November with Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump.

If Harris were to win, political analysts told CNBC they expect a broadly similar approach to Biden’s policy platform — albeit with some subtle differences on major international issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war.

Europe is not under any illusion that a White House win for the Dems would mean that the United States would provide for all the continent’s security needs and reverse its industrial polices.

Sudha David-Wilp

Senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States

For analysts at the Economist Intelligence Unit, the expectation is that a Harris presidency would offer a sense of continuity on matters of foreign affairs.

“That means a gradual decline in military aid for Ukraine, rather than the sharp reduction to force peace talks that we would expect under Donald Trump; a still hawkish stance on China but without Trump’s threat of immediate tariff hikes; and continued efforts to balance support for Israel with de-escalation of the war in Gaza,” EIU analysts Emily Mansfield and Andrew Viteritti told CNBC via email.

“Harris has certainly not criticised Biden on any of these issues, but she is likely to shift the messaging around them, with her emphasis on the humanitarian crisis in Gaza being one example of this,” they added.

Ukraine, Israel and China

Francesco Nicoli, an assistant professor of political science at the Politecnico Institute of Turin in Italy, said the current path of U.S.-EU convergence was likely to continue under a Harris presidency, particularly when it comes to areas such as trade, artificial intelligence, Big Tech and climate policy.

“On Ukraine, we can perhaps expect a Harris-Walz presidency to be bolder than Biden’s,” Nicoli told CNBC via email.

“Without fundamentally [changing] the ‘red lines’ approach that has so far limited US aid to Ukraine, it is likely that the new Democratic ticket will have a somewhat more liberal approach [to] providing Ukraine with the means of pushing and testing such red lines,” he continued. “Walz, in particular, has been a very vocal supporter of Ukraine.”

US Vice President Kamala Harris, right, and Tim Walz, governor of Minnesota and Democratic vice-presidential nominee, during a campaign event at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US, on Tuesday, Aug. 20, 2024.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Nicoli, who also serves as a visiting fellow at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said a Harris presidency was unlikely to drastically alter the trans-Atlantic approach on international issues such as Israel and China.

He said the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, was likely to hail any compromise deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas as a success “as long as the war finishes,” noting that the bloc appeared to be “happy to leave the negotiating leadership” to the U.S.

A spokesperson for the European Commission was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Thursday.

“Similarly, while I have little doubt that, should China launch a full scale invasion of Taiwan the EU would react swiftly and coherently, the EU is currently too divided on China to be a credible partner for the US in any situation short of an open conflict,” Nicoli said.

“The EU is likely to continue its piecemeal industrial policy, which might be branded as anti-China in negotiations with any future US president, but in reality it is likely to be countering the US almost as much as China. A Harris presidency is unlikely to change that,” he added.

Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the U.S. and Americas program at Chatham House, said Harris finds herself in “the difficult position of staking out her foreign policy while serving as Vice President,” but will likely embrace a similar foreign policy consensus to Biden.

“We know she feels passionately about protesting Palestinian lives and this is perhaps the area where we will see more difference,” Vinjamuri told CNBC via email.

“But note [former President Barack] Obama’s words. ‘America cannot be the world’s policeman but it can be a force for good’. This is where the party is and probably where Harris will be also,” she added.

Security needs and industrial policies

Sudha David-Wilp, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, said in a recent blog post that a Harris victory in November “would offer breathing space for Europe to strengthen its defense capabilities” and “adjust to new realities” in the U.S.-EU relationship.

“Undoubtedly, there would be a certain degree of continuity from the Biden administration to a Kamala Harris presidency in terms of ideals, actions, and advisors,” David-Wilp said.

“But Europe is not under any illusion that a White House win for the Dems would mean that the United States would provide for all the continent’s security needs and reverse its industrial polices.”

US Vice President Kamala Harris (L) shakes hands with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky during a meeting on the sideline of the Summit on peace in Ukraine, at the luxury Burgenstock resort, near Lucerne, on June 15, 2024.

Alessandro Della Valle | Afp | Getty Images

David-Wilp said that instead of “handwringing” over Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, the EU should work in tandem with the U.S. to protect supply chains from economic weaponization and focus on pooling more capital and research at home to bring about breakthroughs in areas such as AI or green energy.

“Harris would not disrupt the transatlantic relationship, but her foreign policy focus would naturally turn to China first as well as to addressing immediate crises in the Middle East and at the US southern border — topics that have more relevance within American domestic politics,” she added.