China, India and more: Veteran investor shares his take on emerging markets right now
Emerging markets have been making headlines this year, with growing economies, populations and consumer demand all garnering the attention of investors — but not all EMs are created equal. China in particular has been of concern, given uncertainty over how its economy will perform looking ahead. George Boubouras, managing director for research, investment and advisory at the Melbourne-headquartered K2 Asset Management, shared his views on China — and elsewhere — with CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia”. “The Chinese economy in aggregate has got some opportunities. But, when you divide it all up, there’s a lot of complexities and some issues to deal with,” Boubouras said on Sep 2. He said that, as a result, many fund managers in the West were reluctant to have an overweight position on the country. China’s GDP growth came in at 4.7% year-on-year , missing the 5.1% estimate , and retail sales also disappointed. As well as domestic concerns, there are also trade tensions between the country and the EU and U.S. which are weighing on investor sentiment. The MSCI China index — which captures 655 of the country’s large and mid-cap stocks — is up around 2.5% year-to-date, compared to a 7.25% rise in the MSCI World Emerging Market index. The solution to a pick-up in China’s growth, according to Boubouras, hinges on two factors: a stimulation in domestic demand and an expansion in its national accounts to support the economy and businesses. “That will help turn around some of the sentiment at the consumer business level,” he said. Boubouras said he has a “tactical and dynamic tilt” on China and is playing it through “exporters to China, where their earnings are in the developed world.” Other emerging markets Boubouras also is underweight on emerging markets as a whole, but sees opportunities in Southeast Asia, India and Greece. Touching on India, he said it seemed to be the “place to be” right now, thanks to its “robust network of opportunities.” “It’s got a bit of a mix of everything in there, but it’s a high barrier to entry to be investing in India … But it won’t replicate and or replace what the Chinese equity market has been for Western investors over many decades.” The BSE Sensex index — which represents 30 of the country’s largest and most traded firms on the Bombay Stock Exchange — is up around 14% year-to-date, while the benchmark Nifty 50 index is around 15% higher as of Sept. 5. On Greece, meanwhile, Boubouras said its “economy has turned itself around,” but needs to bolster its sectors beyond agriculture and tourism to grow further. The MSCI Greece index, which includes the nation’s top large and mid-cap stocks, is up close to 13.5% year-to-date. Greece’s credit rating was raised to investment grade last year by S & P, and Fitch Ratings, while Moody’s has upgraded it to a notch below investment grade . Going forward, Boubouras has an overweight call on developed markets and investment-grade credit. He also likes diversified developed market REITs and commodities.
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