CNBC Daily Open: Some aren’t convinced of a soft landing

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

Dow closes at new high
U.S. markets traded mixed Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to touch a new high, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped. Asia-Pacific stocks mostly rose Monday. China’s Shanghai Composite added around 0.5% as the People’s Bank of China injected 234.6 billion yuan ($33.29 billion) into the banking system through open market operations.

India rejects the RCEP
India isn’t joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the country’s Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal told CNBC. Signed in 2020 by 15 Asia-Pacific countries that comprise 30% of global GDP, the RCEP is the world’s largest trade deal. Goyal said it’s not “in the nation’s interest to do a free trade agreement with China.”

Rising youth unemployment in China
China’s youth unemployment rate, which tracks people between 16 to 24 years old, rose to 18.8% in August from 17.7% in July. August’s figure is the highest since China in December started using a new metric for the rate. As China’s economy remains sluggish, calls for the government to introduce stimulus are growing louder.

Qualcomm takeover of Intel?
Qualcomm recently approached Intel for a possible takeover. Whether talks proceeded or what possible deal terms would be are unclear, according to a source. Considering Intel’s market cap of over $90 billion, the deal, if it were to happen, would be one of the largest technology mergers ever. Intel has in recent years struggled with its business.

[PRO] How to invest $1 million
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in four years will change the playing field for markets. Under those new conditions, where should investors deploy their cash? CNBC Pro asked seasoned investors from wealth management firms how they’d allocate $1 million, depending on three different risk profiles.

Markets seemed to accept that the Fed’s supersized rate cut last week was because the central bank wanted to keep the job market healthy.

Some doubt appeared to creep back in on Friday.

FedEx shares plunged 15.2% after it reported first-quarter earnings that missed expectations. It’s not just bad news for the company and its investors.

The freight company’s seen as a bellwether for the economy. The higher overall demand is, the more shipping services are required. Hence, when FedEx misses revenue estimates, one possible conclusion’s that the economy’s not doing as hot as expected.

Some analysts are also growing concerned about the state of the economy and markets.

Piper Sandler chief global economist Nancy Lazar noted the current easing cycle echoes that of 2001 and 2007, when the Fed’s first cut was also half a percentage point. But that first jumbo cut couldn’t avert the recessions of the early 2000s and the global financial crisis.

“On average, it takes 10 quarters after rate liftoff for a downturn to commence. This is the 10th quarter. And given the size of the rate hikes, and the Fed’s balance sheet drawdown, joblessness could reach 6%,” wrote Lazar.

In terms of financial markets, financial firm BTIG sees a possible pullback. But it’s optimistic “the weakness [is] likely to be more moderate than we initially thought,” noted chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky.

Indeed, even though the S&P retreated 0.19% and the Nasdaq fell 0.36% on Friday, the Dow eked out a 0.09% increase for a new closing high. All three indexes also ended the week in the green.

Last week’s burst of euphoria was mostly driven by anticipation and celebration of the Fed’s rate cut. Markets this week will look at the hard data coming out, like GDP figures for the second quarter, consumer confidence and PCE report. They’ll give more clues on whether the cut was really a recalibration, or a reaction.

– CNBC’s Alex Harring, Hakyung Kim and Brian Evans contributed to this story.