Four worries that should keep market bulls awake at night
Investors are still expressing signs of concern despite the stock market hitting all-time highs, according to Deutsche Bank. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half percentage point last week, the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new milestones , topping 5,700 and 42,000, respectively, for the first time. Together with the Nasdaq Composite, all three major averages scored weekly gains of more than 1%. The S & P and the Dow weren’t alone in their milestones. Gold prices also notched a new all-time high following the supersized Fed cut, crossing the $2,600 per ounce level on Friday. The surge in gold — often considered a hedge against inflation — might be one of four worrying signs for the market, suggesting investors are still cautious about rising prices, Deutsche Bank macroeconomic strategist Henry Allen wrote in a note Monday. “With the major central banks like the Fed and the ECB cutting rates, this has historically been a point when inflationary risks are high,” Allen argued. “After all, [monetary] policy is becoming less restrictive, and we can see that money supply growth is picking up as well, so this isn’t just an abstract concern.” Secondly, a hard landing scenario may still be on the table for investors, with Allen noting the risk of a recession as another possible flashpoint. Futures are pricing in more interest rate reductions through the end of next year than the Fed has suggested, meaning that downside risks could force the central bank to “move at a faster pace,” he said. Along with gold, commodity prices more generally may surge due to an “unexpected” geopolitical shock, representing a third point of contention. This was already the case following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, and investors are still wary of agricultural, energy and metals prices. “That episode in 2022 meant that inflation became more entrenched, and European growth was also negatively affected by the supply shock,” the strategist continued. Allen also highlighted that traditional valuation metrics are “elevated” considering the “relentless” nature of the market in 2024. Year to date, the S & P has gained nearly 20%, and has risen in 24 of this year’s 38 weeks, according to FactSet. “Currently, the [cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings] ratio is at historically high levels,” Allen wrote. “In fact, the only other times in the last century it reached these levels were around the dot com bubble, and in 2021 into early 2022, both of which came shortly before a bear market for the S & P 500.”
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