A popular China ETF is surging Tuesday. It’s not time to jump in just yet, according to the charts
With China’s central bank revealing its most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Inde x ripped higher by more than 4%. Not surprisingly, the news has given a jolt to the most liquid Chinese ETF today, as well. The iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI) has been trading even higher than that so far on Tuesday. (It’s priced in U.S. dollars; thus, it’s affected by currency fluctuations). When a huge piece of news causes a massive move in any stock or ETF, the question always is whether it’s now too late to buy? First, every time significant news hits before regular trading hours, it results in an opening gap. Of course, this happened today for FXI. The ETF was trading considerably higher in pre-market trading hours and opened a whopping 6% higher from the prior day’s close. That put the ETF right at its May 2024 high point. A former high often acts as resistance. In other words, potentially buying FXI up 6%, as it was testing a former supply zone that the ETF faded at wasn’t overly enticing from a short-term perspective. And that’s exactly why we need to look beyond the last few months to a get true sense of its trend. This weekly chart presents a much different, and more encouraging, technical picture. FXI has been trying to come back from a three-year downtrend for most of 2024. But after failing near the $29-mark in May, momentum shifted back to negative. However, there was a silver lining: over the last few months, FXI made a higher low vs. its early January low point. That’s a necessary and critical step in eventually forming a bullish formation. The next step is completing a bullish formation. Tuesday’s action has put FXI in position to potentially do that now. A breakout through the $30-area would then target the $38-zone. And at that point, the ETF would be hitting its highest level since early 2022. Again, that’s still a few steps away, but we can see how different its chart would appear should that happen. Sticking with the weekly chart, two key characteristics of a long-term momentum shift are: 1. Seeing the key moving averages begin to slope higher and 2. Having the 14-week Relative Strength Index indicator stay in the upper half of its range. It’s clear how strong the trend was in 2020 when this happened; it’s just as clear to see how weak the trend was when this didn’t happen from 2021 through late 2022. Recently, the moving averages have started to perk up again, and today’s action could pull them further along. Notice also how the 14-week RSI has remained in the range’s upper half for nearly all of 2024. Seeing this continue would be bullish for FXI going forward. Lastly, FXI has had strong multi-month and multi-year runs a handful of times since 2016. The best parts of those past rallies transpired as the ETF had broken above steep downtrend lines. FXI pushed through the most recent downtrend line a few months ago, but the initial follow through didn’t garner enough demand to maintain positive momentum. If the ETF can breakout through $30 soon, the current up leg could pick up steam like it did during the past, long upswings. And if that happens, traders will have no choice but to take notice. DISCLOSURES: (None) All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
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