Oil market faces a rude awakening if Iran’s energy infrastructure is targeted, analysts say

Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.

It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.

Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.

Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.

“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.

Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”

Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.

Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.

Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.

“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.

“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.

“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.

“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.

She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.

“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”

The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.

Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.

“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.

Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”

“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.

“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.