Here’s something for the bulls to celebrate over the next 10 weeks
If the stock market finishes October with returns similar to those already recorded since April, historical data shows there is even more upside on the horizon. Nerad + Deppe Wealth Management’s Steve Deppe found 12 other examples since 1950 when the S & P 500 ended October with a six-month trailing return above 10%. The six-month trailing return on the S & P 500 is currently north of 15%. In every similar case, going all the way back to when Harry Truman was president, the broad index went on to finish December higher than where it ended October. On average, the S & P 500 gained 7.4% in November and December in all those other instances. In other words, the benchmark index has always built on these gains in the final two months of the year. If the past is prologue, the market has further upside, even with stocks trading near all-time highs and after an unusually strong first three quarters of the year. But it also hinges on where the market goes for the rest of October, which can be hard to predict as the presidential election enters its final innings and the next Federal Reserve policy meeting nears. The S & P 500 is currently up nearly 2% on the month. “In 2024, it’s very easy to want to take the money and run,” Deppe told CNBC Pro from his office in La Jolla, California. “We’ve had an incredible two-year run; markets are overvalued; we’ve got an election on deck; we’ve got tensions rising in the Middle East; so on and so forth.” “There’s every reason for somebody to want to press the eject button,” he added. But, “when you see data like this, it helps support the idea that discipline with your investing strategy is more appropriate than acting on any emotional bias.” While Deppe said investors should never take data like this as a “guarantee” of future returns, he noted it can provide “comfort” for sticking with an investment plan. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date Deppe currently expects the S & P 500 will finish 2024 above 6,000. Even a close at exactly that level would mean the S & P 500 has around 3% more upside from where it finished Thursday. The market should even be able to continue rallying into the first half of 2025, he said, but could “run out of gas” next summer. “Right now, I think we have [a] mostly goldilocks environment from a price action standpoint,” he said. That “would lead me to believe that the fundamental state is probably going to be better than we all think moving forward.”
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