How European investors can hedge against a Trump win, according to Barclays
Investors in Europe who are concerned about former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House have several options at their disposal, according to Barclays strategists. The bank suggested that European equities could face significant headwinds if Trump wins the presidency, primarily due to the potential for trade tariffs and protectionist policies . European markets are already trading with a risk premium ahead of a potential Trump win, and the investment bank believes the full impact may not be reflected in current valuations. “The possibility to bypass Congress increases the risk of tariff implementation in the event of a Trump win,” said Barclays strategists led by Emmanuel Cau in a note to clients on Oct. 23. “Compared to a status quo scenario under a Harris win, a Trump win may have broader and more discriminant implications for markets.” The investment bank stressed that it is independent and does not support or endorse any presidential candidate in the election. “Nor does our research attempt to predict whether any particular candidate will be elected,” reads the disclaimer accompanying the research note. The table below shows the stocks identified by Barlcays that are most exposed to potential tariffs and have underperformed the broader market by nearly 15% since early April. Conversely, according to Barclays, the above stocks could get a boost if Vice President Kamala Harris wins Tuesday’s election. Hedging strategies For investors looking to protect their portfolios from downside risks, Barclays recommended several hedging strategies. The bank’s strategists favor put options on major European indices like the Euro Stoxx 50 or the German DAX . Put options are derivatives — with their value derived from that of an underlying asset — and give the owner the right to sell a stock for a given price within a given period of time. The put options recommended by Barclays would become more valuable if European stocks decline, offering protection against market turbulence. “With equity vols relatively low and put skew steep, we like buying SX5E or DAX put spreads to hedge against a Trump win which we believe is likely to further hurt European assets (equities and EUR alike),” the strategists said. Barclays economists have also estimated that if Trump implements his proposed 10% global tariffs and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, the euro zone could face a 0.7% hit to GDP. While this impact is smaller than the projected effects for both China and the U.S., they cautioned it could be more persistent given Europe’s relatively open economy. Under such a scenario, Barclays strategists warned that investors would have nowhere to hide anywhere. “But while Europe would likely get hit the most, we do not think US equities would be immune.” A Trump presidency isn’t all bad news for Europe, however. The strategists also laid out the upside for European markets if the former president regains control of the White House. “Although quite hypothetical at this stage, one potential positive catalyst for Europe to look forward to in the event Trump wins the presidential election is his approach to the Russia-Ukraine war,” the strategists noted, suggesting that any move toward ending the conflict could reduce the risk premium currently weighing on European assets. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
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