Argentina and more: Fund manager names 3 emerging markets with a ‘great investment story’ in 2025
Just one month into the new year and one portfolio manager is already confident that Argentina is “going to be a great story throughout 2025.” “Argentina’s momentum story is fantastic, so it moved from being my top contrarian idea in 2024, to one of my top bets for this year,” Malcolm Dorson, senior portfolio manager at Global X ETFs told CNBC Pro on Jan. 24. Dorson’s conviction in the Latin American country is due in part to a “dramatic” drop in interest rates as well as declines in credit spreads and the cost of capital. The country’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate to 32% in December from a record high of 133% in October 2023. Argentina’s annual inflation rate hit 117.8% in 2024, nearly 94 points lower than in 2023 . Argentina’s economy is slated to expand 5% this year and 4.7% in 2026 after two years of recession, data from the World Bank shows. A boost from sectors like agriculture, energy and mining, supported by macroeconomic stability are expected to drive that forecast in economic growth, the World bank said. “Everything looks good for Argentina: the economy is improving, bond yields are coming down and markets are picking up,” Dorson said. He added that the MSCI Argentina Index is trading at 0.9 times book value, implying that the country’s stocks are undervalued. The MSCI Argentina Index — which tracks the performance of large and mid-cap stocks on the country’s market — has gained 156.57% in the last 12 months, according to FactSet data. For comparison, the MSCI Emerging Markets index — which captures large and mid-cap stocks across 24 emerging markets, including Brazil, China and India — gained 13.81% during the same period. Dorson is particularly interested in the energy sector as the government “unlocks Argentina’s natural resource potential.” His top picks include YPF Sociedad Anonima and Vista Energy which trade on Argentina’s Buenos Aires Exchange and as American Depositary Receipts in the U.S. under the tickers YPF and VIST . Other stocks on Dorson’s radar include Arcos Dorados Holdings , the master franchiser of McDonalds, across Latin America and the Caribbean, and e-commerce platform MercadoLibre , or what he calls “the Amazon of Latin America that everybody loves.” Greece: A fantastic story Besides Argentina, Dorson considers Greece a “fantastic investment story.” “Greece is offering roughly 15% returns a year for the foreseeable future. That is based off 10% earnings growth plus a 67% dividend yield. Put that together and you can sit back and have downside protection,” he said. “With Greece, you have a market that is investment grade credit, the fastest growing GDP in Western Europe, and you’re still trading below book value. Its a boring, good story that’s nice to sit on.” Greece has emerged from a years-long debt crisis and is expected to grow 2.2% this year and 2.5% in 2026, according to projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development . Its credit rating was raised to investment grade by S & P and Fitch Ratings in 2023 while Moody’s has upgraded it to a notch below investment grade. The MSCI Greece Index tracking the performance of large and mid-cap stocks on the Greek market is up 17.26% in the last 12 months, according to FactSet data. Dorson is particularly bullish on Greek banks after a clean up in their balance sheets. Their asset quality is very safe “after securitizing their non-performing loan books and selling them to alternative credit managers and hedge funds,” he said, naming Alpha Services & Holdings as his top pick in the theme. He also likes toy retailer Jumbo, given its “potential from a rapid expansion into under penetrated markets in Eastern Europe,” and lottery and gaming company Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics, or OPAP, which he describes as “very profitable and highly patronized by locals.” India: A long-term story In Asia, Dorson is betting on India over the long-term given its ” absolutely fantastic structural setup .” “It is a market that is going to generate returns that I can invest in my children and grandchildren,” he said. His conviction comes even as India’s benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex are hovering at more than seven-month lows. The portfolio manager sees India as a beneficiary of the strong headwinds between the U.S. and China. He added that India — along with other emerging markets — will also see an easing in monetary policy after “pricing in a stronger U.S. dollar and an incrementally hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve.” The financial sector, namely banks, stand out to him, given that it is a “levered play on the broad Indian market.” “Banks have been smart and prudent in committing a strong capex [capital expenditure] cycle. They’ve been investing in technology and offering more digital banking over the last five years, which is allowing them to cut expenditure, raise revenues and improve asset quality,” Dorson explained. Banks are also “one of the few areas in the Indian market with relatively attractive multiples,” he said, naming HDFC , ICICI Bank and Federal Bank as his top bets in the theme.
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