Cover the Spread: What It Is and How It Works

Sports betting has grown into a multi-billion-dollar industry, and one of its most popular forms is betting against the spread. While casual bettors might focus on simply picking a winner, more experienced gamblers may pursue greater risk and greater opportunity by betting the spread. In this article, we’ll look at what that means and how it works.

Key Takeaways

• Covering the spread means a team wins by more than the point spread or loses by fewer points than the spread.
• Sportsbooks set the spread to balance betting and adjust it based on betting trends.
• A team can win a game but fail to cover the spread if they don’t win by enough points.
• A push happens if the outcome of the game is the same amount as the spread; in this case, bets are returned.
• Betting the spread differs from the money line, which is a straight bet on which team wins.

What Is the Spread?

The point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to even the odds between two teams of different skill levels. Instead of simply choosing the winning team, bettors must decide whether a team will win or lose by a certain number of points.

For example, if one team is favored by 7 points, oddsmakers will assign them a point spread. In this case, it would be (-7). This means this team must win by more than 7 points for a bet on them to succeed. On the other hand, the underdog (+7) needs to either win outright or lose by fewer than 7 points for its bettors to win. The underdog may lose the match, but those who bet on the underdog can still win their bet if the underdog “covers the spread”.

In many ways, the spread is like a handicap. It does not influence the actual game, and no real points are awarded during the real match. However, it gives the underdog an advantage in the betting world by giving them a “head’s start”. In the example above, you could interpret the spread as the underdog starting the match with a 7-0 lead. For the rest of the match, the favorite must outscore the underdog by at least that much to “win” in the betting world.

How Does Covering the Spread Work?

Covering the spread means that the favored team wins by more than the assigned spread, or the underdog keeps the game closer than expected. In the example above, if a favorite is given a -7 spread and wins by more than 7 points, they have covered the spread. If they win by less than 6 points or outright lose, they fail to cover, meaning the underdog bet wins.

On the other hand, you can cover the spread even if the team loses. In this example we’ve been losing, the underdog could lose by only 6 points; in this case, they would have covered the spread.

What Happens If the Spread Is Not Covered?

There’s two things that happened if a team fails to cover the spread. The first is simply that team lost their part of the bet. If an underdog’s spread is +7 and they lose by 14, they failed to cover the spread. Any bettor that placed money on them to cover the spread has lost.

Another outcome is for there to be a “push”. A push occurs when the outcome is exactly that of the spread. In the example above, if the favorite wins by exactly 7, all bets are generally returns and nobody wins. For this reason, oddsmakers try to set spreads that can’t be achieved (i.e. in the example above, the spread would likely be 6.5 points or 7.5 points).

What Factors Influence the Spread?

Oddsmakers take into consideration a lot of factors when setting the spread. This includes everything from team performance, injuries, weather conditions, and even betting trends. Sometimes underappreciated aspects of a game such as team fatigue, home-field advantage, and even travel schedules influence how oddsmakers calculate the spread.

Public perception also matters in how the spread is set. If a large percentage of the betting public heavily favors one team, sportsbooks may adjust the spread to encourage balanced action on both sides. This ensures that the bookmaker minimizes risk while maintaining an even playing field for bettors.

Some sportsbooks offer opportunities for bettors to move the spread in either direction to get better or worse odds. For instance, in the example above, if you were confident the favorite would win by at least 10 points, you could “sell” points and move the margin that the team would have to cover. To be compensated for this risk, you would face a better payout. Alternatively, if you’re less confident, you can “buy down” the spread (say, to 4 points). However, you’d face worse payout amounts.

Once the spread is set, it can shift based on betting patterns. If heavy action comes in on one team, sportsbooks may adjust the spread to balance the risk. There may always be factors that emerge as the game gets closer, such as key players needing to sit or unexpected personnel illnesses.

Example of Covering the Spread

In Super Bowl LIX, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points. Though the spread would have varied across sportsbooks, one such example was the spread of Kansas City (-1.5) and Philadelphia (+1.5). This means that oddsmakers thought the game would have been much closer than it was, and this sportsbook thought Kansas City was the favorite.

The Philadelphia Eagles could have lost and still covered the spread. For example, if they lost by only 1 point, they would have still covered. However, by winning (regardless of how many points they won by), they covered the spread and rewarded all bettors who put money on them.

Note

If you have a gambling problem, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700, or visit ncpgambling.org/chat to chat with a specialist.

Covering the Spread vs. Money Line Bet

Covering the spread involves wagering on a team not just to win, but to either exceed a predetermined margin (if they are the favorite) or stay within that margin (if they are the underdog). Another popular betting option is a money line bet. This is a straightforward wager on which team will win, regardless of the final score or margin of victory.

Since spread bets account for performance beyond simply winning or losing, the odds are usually set around -110 for both teams, meaning bettors must wager $110 to win $100. Money line odds, however, reflect the perceived probability of a team winning outright. A heavy favorite might have odds of -250 or worse, requiring a bettor to risk $250 just to win $100. Conversely, betting on an underdog on the money line, such as at +200, could yield a $200 profit on a $100 bet if they pull off an upset.

The main takeaway here is, generally speaking, it’s more difficult to cover the spread as opposed to just picking the outright winner. However, oddsmakers know this, so they adjust payout amounts to reflect the extra amount of risk bettors take trying to cover the spread.

What Does It Mean to Cover the Spread?

Covering the spread means that a team has either won by more than the required point spread (if they are the favorite) or lost by fewer points than the spread (if they are the underdog).

How Is the Point Spread Determined?

They use statistical models and market analysis to establish a fair spread that attracts equal betting on both sides. If too much money is placed on one side, the sportsbook may adjust the spread to encourage balanced action. That statistical model analyzes everything including but not limited to team performance, history between the two teams, personnel available, injuries, and weather conditions.

What Happens If a Team Wins but Doesn’t Cover the Spread?

If a favorite wins the game but fails to win by a margin greater than the spread, they do not cover the spread, and bets on them lose. For example, if a team is favored by 7 points (-7) but wins by only 3 points, bets on the favorite lose while bets on the underdog win (even though the underdog lost the actual game).

In Which States Is Sports Betting Legal?

As of January 2025, sports betting is legal in 38 states plus Washington, D.C.

What Is a Push?

A push occurs when the final margin of victory matches the exact point spread, resulting in a tie for betting purposes. For example, if a team is favored by 6 points (-6) and wins by exactly 6, neither side wins, and all bets are refunded.

The Bottom Line

Understanding how to cover the spread is essential for anyone serious about sports betting. It adds complexity to wagering, making it more strategic than simply picking winners and losers. By analyzing trends, managing risk, and staying informed, bettors can improve their chances of long-term success.