This week’s sell-off has pushed the S & P 500 below a key technical level, raising concern that a sustained downturn could take hold. The broad market index on Monday tore through its 200-day moving average for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2023. The technical measure, which indicates the long-term trend of the market, is at around 5,733. On Monday, the broader index closed at 5,614.56, more than 100 points below that level, as investors exited stocks due to fears of a recession stemming from U.S. tariffs on imported goods. The slide continued Tuesday, with the benchmark around 5,580. Market technicians think the move could cap further upside in 2025, which will likely be defined by choppy, sideways action after the bull run of the past two calendar years. “I think this could be indicating a trend change,” said Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer. “A change in the trend doesn’t have to mean from up to down. It could be from up to sideways.” Wald said he is looking for a 15% to 20% downturn in the back half of 2025 and into next year, before the next sustained uptrend takes place. “I think that that bear market cycle is going to chew up time,” Wald said. “We’re probably going to spend the next nine to 12 months kind of consolidating in that type of manner.” Some technicians say they need further confirmation this week of the trend change. Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies, said she is watching if the S & P 500 will hold below its 200-day average, as well as the 5,783 support level, through Friday. If it closes on Friday below those levels, that would confirm an intermediate-term setback in the days and weeks ahead, she said.
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