Josh Brown says this is a classic ‘bear market bounce’
The comeback attempt stocks are staging Tuesday is little more than a blip in a still-concerning market, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management co-founder and CEO Josh Brown. “Put today’s bounce into the entry of classic bear market bounce, because that’s exactly what you have today,” Brown told CNBC’s “Halftime Report” on Tuesday. “When you look at the level of technical damage done, though, I think you have to conclude ‘hey, this was warranted.’ We need to exhale and take a little bit of a breath. Not every day should we be down 1,500 or 1,600 points on the Dow.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up nearly 200 points, or 0.5%. However, earlier, the 30-stock index had gained as much as 3.8%. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had both posted gains of more than 4% Tuesday, but the rally faded in early afternoon trading . The volatile moves follow a sharp sell-off in the wake of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff plans, which put steep levies on most countries and fueled concerns about the possibility of a global economic slowdown, if not a recession. Bear markets occur when stocks drop 20% from a closing high. Tracking the S & P 500 from 1929 to 2020 shows the index advances 18% on average over a 31-day period in a bear market rally. Brown expects more downside ahead as little has changed from a fundamental perspective. “What happens after today? Does anything change?” Brown said. “Because if we think we’re going into a recession, and if Larry Fink is saying the average CEO thinks there’s a recession , well here’s what’s to come.” Earnings reports in the weeks ahead could make matters even more difficult, he said. According to Brown, since tariff negotiations are ongoing, companies may opt out of providing forecasts. “Earnings season starts at the end of the week, and you know what you’re going to hear? Maybe not from the banks, but everywhere else, pulling guidance,” Brown said. “That’s never good. I’ve never seen it be the bottom when they pull guidance.” He added that if the U.S. does slip into a full-blown recession, earnings could fall anywhere from 20% to 30%, which is typical during market downturns. “I worry you’re going to get the earnings guidance yanked, followed by weak earnings next quarter … plus you have multiple contraction, and none of this is over,” he said. “It’s continuing and it’s going to be every single day.” Brown said Tuesday’s bounce provides an opportunity for investors who did not position themselves defensively last week to safeguard their portfolios. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
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