More than 60% of CEOs expect a recession in the next 6 months as tariff turmoil grows, survey says

Investing News
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April 14, 2025
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The Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York.

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A growing majority of America’s top executives now expects the U.S. economy to enter a recession in the near future, according to a survey released Monday.

Of the more than 300 CEOs polled in April, 62% said they forecasted a recession or other economic downturn in the next six months, according to Chief Executive, an industry group that runs the survey. That’s up from 48% who said the same in March.

Chief Executive’s data underscores the growing concern within corporate America around the future of the U.S. economy. Fears about a forthcoming recession hit a boiling point in the last two weeks, as President Donald Trump’s on-again-off-again tariff policy ratcheted up volatility in financial markets and stirred panic among some consumers.

Indeed, around three-fourths of CEOs surveyed said tariffs would hurt their businesses in 2025. About two-thirds said they did not support Trump’s proposed levies, many of which are currently on pause.

Economic anxiety among executives

The monthly survey, which has run since 2002, includes several data points that paint a concerning picture of how America’s foremost business leaders view the economy.

An index of CEOs’ views on current business conditions tumbled 9% in April, continuing its decline after plunging 20% in the prior month. The measure now sits at its lowest level since the early months of the pandemic in 2020.

When forecasting business conditions a year out, CEOs held their view steady from March. Still, these readings were the lowest since late 2012 and have tanked around 29% from the end of 2024.

The survey found that more than four out of five chief executives project costs spiking this year, which is no surprise given the ongoing negotiations over import taxes between the White House and foreign countries. Around half forecast their percentage increases in expenses to be in the double digits.

In this vein, just 37% said they believe their companies’ profits will increase. That’s a steep drop from the 76% who gave this response in January.

To be sure, Chief Executive’s data set included a few bright spots. Slightly over half of respondents said they foresee business conditions bettering over the next year, an increase from the 39% share seen a month earlier.

Many CEO may be getting some tariff relief as well. Trump late Friday announced that smartphones and PCs would be exempt from duties, though Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that these exemptions would be temporary.

Chief Executive’s data comes as U.S. business leaders have started flashing warning signs on the country’s economic future.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that he expects earnings estimates for S&P 500 firms to fall due to the uncertainty around Trump’s levies. Also on Friday, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the U.S. economy may have already weakened to the point of growth coming in negative.