The market’s winning streak is out of gas. Now to find out if this was a ‘bear-market rally’
The historic winning streak for the S & P 500 wobbled and broke on Monday after no trade deals materialized over the weekend, leaving investors in limbo as they wait for the next market-moving development. The broad market index closed down less than 1%, its first negative session in 10. Trading in stocks was tepid throughout the day, as even Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s reiteration that a trade deal was “very close” seemed to do little to spur more buying. Meanwhile, gold saw a sharp jump that put the yellow metal back above $3,300 per ounce and suggested that investors don’t see an all-clear just yet. XAU= 1D mountain Gold rose back above $3,300 per ounce on Monday. Volatility and investor fear has clearly declined in recent weeks, but that risk of the trade war or economic slowdown is not permanently over. In fact, “bear-market rally” is likely to be a popular phrase until some concrete progress appears on the trade front. For example, Fred Hickey wrote in his newsletter “The High-Tech Strategist” on Saturday that the winning streak resembled some of the short-lived rallies during the deflation of the dot-com bubble. “To believe that everything will end up just swell when a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, which has already shut down virtually all trade between them and with both sides stubbornly holding to the belief that each has the upper hand in negotiations, is sheer nonsense. But it’s sheer nonsense that propels doomed bear market rallies,” Hickey wrote. Investors may not be the only group in a holding pattern. The lack of trade clarity limits the options for the Federal Reserve at its next meeting, which begins Tuesday. Consumers may also start to tighten their belts, just in case. Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said on ” The Exchange ” that, while consumer activity is “resilient” and there are not imminent signs of a major slowdown, credit card data does suggest that everyday Americans are becoming more “discerning.” “We’ve seen the consumer being fiscally responsible, so delinquencies are actually doing a bit better than were expected. We’re seeing spending pivot a bit more to the essentials and away from discretionary retail,” Fraser said.
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