Apollo eyes $100 billion Germany investment as private capital swerves U.S. turmoil for Europe
MEGA, or “Make Europe Great Again,” was a hot topic at this year’s biggest private markets event last week. The about-turn in sentiment toward the continent was illustrated no better than when the boss of industry juggernaut Apollo said he saw the opportunity to put $100 billion “in the ground” in Germany over the next decade. “I think many investors in Europe see the opportunity, and many investors in U.S. see the opportunity right now in Europe. They see it across the private equity ecosystem. They also see it across the credit ecosystem,” Apollo Global Management President Jim Zelter said during a keynote interview. As well as direct lending, Zelter said he saw big opportunity in investment-grade commercial and residential real estate, highlighting domestic housing shortages in Spain and the U.K. On Germany, Zelter said the $100 billion investment figure would be hard to match anywhere in the world outside of the U.S., and that the country had “woken up Europe to focus on financing industry, military and a variety of other critical industries.” His comments will be welcomed by Germany’s new government, which has called for private capital to help meet its infrastructure needs alongside public funding. Sentiment began to significantly shift around the sluggish German economy in March, when lawmakers approved alterations to longstanding debt restrictions to allow the establishment of a $500 billion fund for defense, infrastructure and climate-related projects. At the start of May, center-right, pro-business politician Friedrich Merz — who has served on the boards of BlackRock Germany, EY Germany and the Deutsche Börse — was confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor, ending months of political uncertainty. Merz met with U.S. President Donald Trump last week , achieving some diplomatic wins in his attempt to strengthen ties between the countries and urge further support for Ukraine. Europe bulls, U.S. nerves Joana Rocha Scaff, head of European private equity at Neuberger Berman, told CNBC that many investors had started the year overweight the U.S. and intending to extend their allocations, expecting deregulation and a boost to economic growth, only to be abruptly stymied by Trump’s tariff policies. “In the midst of this turbulence and noise in the U.S., we have seen capital be redirected towards Europe,” she said, with her own investment firm “actively investing in the market” alongside its core general partners, or GPs. Neuberger Berman’s active market investments deploy around $4 billion of capital on a direct basis a year, she said. So far this year, Europe has accounted for around 65% of direct investment activity, up from around 20-30% of global market activity on a typical year, she noted. Those investments have been broad, she continued but generally oriented around developed parts of Europe, energy security and transition, defense, digitalization and industrial assets. Private equity’s enthusiasm toward Europe has also been reflected in public markets. Germany’s blue chip DAX index is up around 22% this year, versus around 1% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Europe’s Aerospace and Defense Index is up nearly 50%, while a tracker index of the long-buzzy Magnificent 7 U.S. tech giants is down 2%. For retail investors seeking opportunities in the space, JPMorgan recently named its top European stock picks for the next year — and they include defense names Rheinmetall and Babcock International , IT firms SAP and Dassault Systems , and infrastructure picks Alstom , Heidelberg Materials and Saint-Gobain . There are also new ways for retail investors to track private credit returns through exchange-traded funds — though experts warn private markets are complex and come with significant risks . Earlier this year, State Street and Apollo Global Management launched the SPDR SSGA Apollo IG Public & Private Credit ETF (PRIV) exchange-traded fund (ETF), which aims to have at least 80% of its assets in investment-grade private and public debt securities.
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